Disrupted economy due to COVID-19 pandemic has been spilled to multifaceted sectors. Agriculture, more specifically oil palm sector was also hit by the impact of the catastrophe. This study is aimed to decipher the effect of COVID-19 pandemic to the management of oil palm plantation. The pandemic has caused the mobility and morbidity of people in such a way that exacerbated distribution of input factor, harvesting process, and transporting activities. Through online survey to 59 farmers consist of smallholder, government, and private estates, the study indicated that there was salient change of limiting activities particularly during immature and mature stages. Hence, the production of fresh fruit bunch (FFB) also decreased by 15% compared to business as usual as measured on monthly bases. Although the magnitude of production change was not statistically significance, planters still suffered from declining FFB farm gate price. On average, they received 5% lower selling price of FFB as a consequence of contracted CPO demand from prominent importing countries such as China, India, and Italy. The lower selling farm gate price has caused the income shocks to the farmers. Thus, quite large number of them experienced either turn-over or cost efficiency at the expense of fertilizer input. It is perpetuating the vicious cycle of lower smallholder attainable FFB yield. For a group that is at the high risk of infections as well, this circumstances has bring about concerns to Indonesian palm oil development, especially in terms of replanting realization and biodiesel blending progress in the long run
<p><span lang="EN-US">There are considerably limited evaluations had dealt with the demand side of the Indonesian B20 biodiesel market. Thus, market research on product performance, product importance, and consumer awareness was performed. This research utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods. In-depth interviews with key informants were summarized in the word cloud form. The outcomes then became the ground for quantitative research. The results of 111 online questionnaires indicated that there was a gap in the level of awareness among respondents in Sumatra to that of outside Sumatra. The male, higher education background, and heavy-user of bio solar cohort were tended to vote a sizeable number in the performance evaluation. Especially for the performance of biodiesel that caused sedimentation on the filter engines (73.08%, 72.35%, and 73.08%). Meanwhile, biodiesel performance that supports the nation's energy security is the most important attribute to be highlighted as the product main entity. The policy implication through multifaceted strategies such as incentive provision for automotive companies that are adaptive to market demand is one of a kind. In the long run, the return to investment from these policies are expected to not only increase the multiplier effects of the oil palm plantation but also national energy security.</span></p><p><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></p><p><span lang="EN-US">Abstrak</span></p><p><span lang="EN-US">Sejauh ini belum ada evaluasi ilmiah yang mempelajari aspek permintaan produk biodiesel Indonesia dari sisi konsumen (pasar), sehingga studi mengenai evaluasi produk dan kesadaran konsumen biodiesel B20 menjadi tujuan dari penelitian ini. Riset pasar ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dan kuantitatif. Temuan dari riset kualitatif dalam bentuk <em>wordcloud</em> menjadi landasan untuk kajian kuantitatif. Hasil deskriptif dan nonparametrik 111 kuesioner secara daring mengindikasikan adanya kesenjangan tingkat kesadaran antara responden berdomisili di Sumatera dan luar Sumatera. Responden berjenis kelamin laki-laki, berlatar pendidikan tinggi, dan dominan menggunakan biosolar sebagai bahan bakarnya cenderung kritis menilai atribut terjadinya endapan pada mesin filter (73,08%; 72,35%; dan 73,08%). Performa biodiesel yang mendukung ketahanan energi bangsa menjadi aspek penting yang harus ditonjolkan sebagai entitas dari produk. Inovasi produk dapat dikembangkan melalui kebijakan multidimensi. Salah satunya dengan intervensi pemerintah melalui pemberian insentif bagi <em>automaker</em> yang adaptif terhadap permintaan pasar. Pada akhirnya, implikasi kebijakan ini diharapkan tidak hanya meningkatkan <em>multiplyer effect</em> dari perkebunan kelapa sawit, tetapi juga ketahanan energi nasional.</span></p>
Indonesia is the biggest palm oil exporter, however how much Indonesia's competitiveness compared to other exporting countries still need to study. This study measures competitiveness using 10 indicators of trade from the World Bank divided into 3 major groups, namely; export share, market penetration and comparative advantage. Using trade data from UN Comtrade of palm oil in HS code, 2004-2016. Referring to the results of 10 indicators, Indonesia; share exports are increasing, stronger market penetration, more diversified exports, and increased comparative advantage. Malaysia as exporter, although the share of exports is declining but still has strong market penetration, diversified exports and comparative advantage.
The climate change may lead to anomaly in hydrological cycle. Climatic disturbance in precipitation or rainfall rate will turn to impact oil palm production. The low precipitation due to erratic rainfall will affect sex differentiation, abort female inflorescence, and subsequently decrease oil palm yield. On a larger scale, the peculiar yield trend will fluctuate oil palm supply and thus impact the crude palm oil (CPO) price. This study was aimed to assess the impact of climate change on palm oil price dynamics and to anticipate its adverse effect faced by the vulnerable smallholder in Indonesia. The system of equations was estimated by employing simultaneous equation model. The simulations were set to generate the forecasts from 2018 to 2050 using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. A time series data ranging from 1980 to 2018 of CPO yield, oil palm mature areas, stock changes, export, as well as monthly rainfall rate were taken into account. The simulation revealed that the climate change in terms of fluctuating rainfall would cause unfavourable palm oil price level that eventually would exacerbate smallholder welfare.
Upaya mempertahankan peran strategis komoditas kelapa sawit sebagai salah satu pilar pembangunan ekonomi Indonesia memerlukan pemahaman mendalam terhadap faktor fundamental yang mempengaruhi dinamika supply dan demand komoditas ini. Di sisi supply, realisasi produksi kelapa sawit nasional pada tahun berjalan akan dipengaruhi oleh iklim dan tren pelaksanaan teknik budidaya khususnya pemupukan di lapangan bahkan sejak 1 hingga 2 tahun sebelumnya. Pada situasi terkini, hadirnya pandemi COVID-19 diduga telah menambah kompleksitas dalam upaya peningkatan produksi pada tahun 2020 dan 2021. Tidak hanya dari sisi supply, ketidakpastian tentang akhir dari pandemik COVID-19 ini juga telah mengakibatkan demand terhadap CPO menjadi lebih sulit diprediksi. Kajian ini dilaksanakan untuk mengantisipasi dampak kompleksitas faktor-faktor tersebut di tingkat produksi serta merumuskan alternatif solusinya. Analisis konten dengan kajian eksploratif digunakan untuk memberikan gambaran seberapa kuat keterkaitan antar-variabel yang menjadi fokus kajian. Proyeksi iklim, produksi, dan perbandingan year on year memberikan justifikasi tingkat perubahan yang terjadi ketika suatu faktor dipertimbangkan. Penilaian ex-ante dan ex-post tingkat pemeliharaan kebun juga menjelaskan perubahan perilaku pekebun dalam menyikapi efek jangka pendek dari pandemi. Disimpulkan bahwa pandemi COVID-19 dan anomali curah hujan akibat El Niño telah menyebabkan penurunan produksi dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya. Faktor lain yang harus diantisipasi oleh pelaku usaha sawit adalah kebijakan peningkatan tariff barrier, rasionalisasi demand akibat kenaikan harga yang tinggi, pembatasan mobilisasi disebabkan pandemi, dan realisasi program PSR serta insentif biodiesel.
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