In European club football, decision makers often rely on recent match outcomes when evaluating team performance, even though short-term results are heavily influenced by randomness. This can lead to systematic misjudgments. In this article, we propose a complementary approach for performance evaluation. We build upon the concept of expected goals based on quantified scoring chances and develop a chart that visualizes situations in which a team’s true performance likely deviates from the performance indicated by match outcomes. This should prevent clubs from making flawed decisions when match outcomes are misleading due to the influence of random forces.

The house money effect predicts that individuals show increased risk-seeking behavior in the presence of prior gains. Although the effect's existence is widely accepted, experimental studies that compare individuals' risk-taking behavior using house money to individuals' risktaking behavior using their own money produce contradictory results. This experimental study analyzes the gambling behavior of 917 casino customers who face real losses. We find that customers who received free play at the entrance showed not higher but significantly lower levels of risk-taking behavior during their casino visit, expressed through lower average wagers. This study thus provides field evidence that rejects the existence of a house money effect. Moreover, as a result of lower levels of risk seeking, endowed customers yield better economic results in the form of smaller own-money losses when leaving the casino.

This paper empirically examines how suspense and surprise explain demand for entertainment. We use the Wimbledon Championships tennis tournament as a natural laboratory.This setting allows us to both operationalize suspense and surprise using the audience's belief about the final outcome of the match and observe of the demand for live entertainment using JEL Classification: D83, L82, L83

This paper empirically examines how suspense and surprise explain demand for entertainment. We use the Wimbledon Championships tennis tournament as a natural laboratory.This setting allows us to both operationalize suspense and surprise using the audience's belief about the final outcome of the match and observe of the demand for live entertainment using JEL Classification: D83, L82, L83

The decision to dismiss a coach is challenging because poor performance tends to coincide with both bad luck and low coaching ability. We differentiate between dismissals following actual poor performance on the pitch (wise dismissals) and dismissals following seemingly poor performance due to bad luck (unwise dismissals). To categorize dismissals, we use "expected goals," which are less vulnerable to random variation in match outcomes. Using data from European football, we find that wise dismissals increase subsequent performance compared to a control group of nondismissals with similarly poor performance on the pitch. However, unwise dismissals do not improve subsequent performance compared to a control group with similar strings of bad luck. (JEL D81, J44, L83) I. INTRODUCTION Understanding how managerial change affects the performance of organizations is of critical importance. One main area of previous research is the sports industry, where the focus is on the impact of head coach changes on team performance (Giambatista, Rowe, and Riaz 2005). Coaches are ultimately responsible for team performance and thus hold official authority (Grusky 1963). Based on the considerable influence of coaches on teams through strategic, operational, and motivational channels, research suggests that coaches play crucial roles in determining team performance (Kattuman, Loch, and Kurchian 2019; Muehlheusser et al. 2018; Rowe et al. 2005). However, most empirical studies across different sports conclude that there is no positive effect of involuntary coach changes on team performance (Audas, Goddard, and Rowe 2006; Gamson and Scotch 1964). Most prominently, studies using data from European football show that while performance improves after a within-season coach dismissal, performance also improves for a control group of counterfactual dismissals that did not occur (Paola and Scoppa,

This article uses bookmaker betting volume data to test the influence of bettor sentiment on bookmaker pricing in the over/under 2.5 goals betting market. In an average match, more than 80% of the volume wagered is concentrated on the over bet as cheering for a high score is more attractive than betting against it. We do not find that this volume imbalance is associated with systematic biases in bettor returns. High price transparency seems to prevent bookmakers from systematically distorting their odds in order to exploit bettor sentiment. AbstractThis article uses bookmaker betting volume data to test the influence of bettor sentiment on bookmaker pricing in the over/under 2.5 goals betting market. In an average match, more than 80% of the volume wagered is concentrated on the over bet as cheering for a high score is more attractive than betting against it. We do not find that this volume imbalance is associated with systematic biases in bettor returns. High price transparency seems to prevent bookmakers from systematically distorting their odds in order to exploit bettor sentiment.

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