An empirical modeling of road related and non-road related landslide hazard for a large geographical area using logistic regression in tandem with signal detection theory is presented. This modeling was developed using geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data, and was implemented on the Clearwater National Forest in central Idaho. The approach is based on explicit and quantitative environmental correlations between observed landslide occurrences, climate, parent material, and environmental attributes while the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are used as a measure of performance of a predictive rule. The modeling results suggest that development of two independent models for road related and non-road related landslide hazard was necessary because spatial prediction and predictor variables were different for these models. The probabilistic models of landslide potential may be used as a decision support tool in forest planning involving the maintenance, obliteration or development of new forest roads in steep mountainous terrain.

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You may order additional copies of this publication by sending your mailing information in label form through one of the following media. Please specify the publication title and series number. Fort Collins Service Center AbstrActWe synthesized post-fire road treatment information to assist BAER specialists in making road rehabilitation decisions. We developed a questionnaire; conducted 30 interviews of BAER team engineers and hydrologists; acquired and analyzed gray literature and other relevant publications; and reviewed road rehabilitation procedures and analysis tools. Post-fire road treatments are implemented if the values at risk warrant the treatment and based on regional characteristics, including the timing of first damaging storm and window of implementation. Post-fire peak flow estimation is important when selecting road treatments. Interview results indicate that USGS methods are used for larger watersheds (>5 mi 2 ) and NRCS Curve Number methods are used for smaller watersheds (<5 mi 2 ). These methods are not parameterized and validated for post-fire conditions. Many BAER team members used their own rules to determine parameter values for USGS regression and NRCS CN methods; therefore, there is no consistent way to estimate postfire peak flow. Many BAER road treatments for individual stream crossings were prescribed based on road/culvert surveys, without considering capacities of existing road structure and increased post-fire peak flow. For all regions, rolling dips/water bars, culvert upgrading, and ditch cleaning/armoring are the most frequently used road treatments. For Forest Service Regions 1 and 4, culvert upgrading is preferred, especially for fish-bearing streams. For Forest Service Region 3, culvert removal with temporary road closure and warning signs is preferred. Except for culverts, insufficient data is available on other road treatments to estimate their capacity and to evaluate their effectiveness.