Irrigation with surface water enables Chilean agricultural producers to generate one of the country's most important economic exports. The Chilean water code established tradable water rights as a mechanism to allocate water amongst farmers and other water-use sectors. It remains contested whether this mechanism is effective and many authors have raised equity concerns regarding its impact on water users. For example, speculative hoarding of water rights in expectations of their increasing value has been described. This paper demonstrates how farmers can hoard water rights as a risk management strategy for variable water supply, for example, due to the cycles of El Niño or as consequence of climate change. While farmers with insufficient water rights can rely on unclaimed water during conditions of normal water availability, drought years overproportionally impact on their supply of irrigation water and thereby farm profitability. This study uses a simulation model that consists of a hydrological balance model component and a multiagent farm decision and production component. Both model components are parameterized with empirical data, while uncertain parameters are calibrated. The study demonstrates a thorough quantification of parameter uncertainty, using global sensitivity analysis and multiple behavioral parameter scenarios.
Numerical modeling is increasingly used as a tool for environmental assessment and planning, including for Drinking Water Source Protection in Ontario as outlined in the Government of Ontario's 2006 Clean Water Act. However, modeling procedures are often inadequate in the organizational context and tight budgets. It remains a challenge to adapt these procedures such that they are transparent and efficient for watershed practitioners. This paper reviews and analyzes the application of the event-based approach, as defined in the technical rules to the ‘Clean Water Act’. Four limitations are then identified in a case study using the common procedure. Addressing these requires iterative model refinements, which likely result in cost overruns and undermine sound budget planning. An alternative method is then suggested, demonstrated and validated, which uses numerical modeling for creating a generic diagram. Such a generic diagram offers a transparent decision-making tool for planners, other non-technical employes and land owners.
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