BackgroundNon-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015.MethodsWe estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores.FindingsWe generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Grou...

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

SummaryBackgroundIn September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).MethodsWe applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.FindingsIn 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8–61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2–86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4–24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0–10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7–13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1–8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.InterpretationGBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

a b s t r a c tBackground: Despite the health system effort s, health disparities exist across sub-populations in India. We assessed the effects of health behaviour change interventions through women's self-help groups (SHGs) on maternal and newborn health (MNH) behaviours and socio-economic inequalities. Methods: We did a quasi-experimental study of a large-scale SHG program in Uttar Pradesh, India, where 120 geographic blocks received, and 83 blocks did not receive health intervention. Data comes from two cross-sectional surveys with 4,615 recently delivered women in 2015, and 4,250 women in 2017. The intervention included MNH discussions in SHG meetings and community outreach activities. The outcomes included antenatal, natal and postnatal care, contraceptive use, cord care, skin-to-skin care, and breastfeeding practices. Effects were assessed using multilevel mixed-effects regression adjusted differencein-differences (DID) analysis adjusting for geographic clustering and potential covariates, for all, mostmarginalised and least-marginalised women. Concentration indices examined the socio-economic inequality in health practices over time. Findings: The net improvements (5-11 percentage points [pp]) in correct MNH practices were significant in the intervention areas. The improvements over time were higher among the most-marginalised than least-marginalised for antenatal check-ups (DID: 20pp, p < 0 • 001 versus DID: 6pp, p = 0 • 093), consumption of iron folic acid tablets for 100 days (DID: 7pp, p = 0 • 036 versus DID: -1pp, p = 0 • 671), current use of contraception (DID: 12pp, p = 0 • 046 versus DID: 10pp, p = 0 • 021), cord care (DID: 12pp, p = 0 • 051 versus DID: 7pp, p = 0 • 210), and timely initiation of breastfeeding (DID: 29pp, p = 0 • 001 versus DID: 1pp, p = 0 • 933). Lorenz curves and concentration indices indicated reduction in rich-poor gap in health practices over time in the intervention areas. Interpretation: Disparities in MNH behaviours declined with the effort s by SHGs through behaviour change communication intervention.

Background Based on World Health Organization guidelines, Government of India recommended management of possible serious bacterial infection (PSBI) in young infants up to two months of age on an outpatient basis where referral is not feasible. We implemented the guideline in program setting to increase access to treatment with high treatment success and low resultant mortality. Methods Implementation research was conducted in four rural blocks of Lucknow district in Uttar Pradesh, India. It included policy dialogues with the central and state government and district level officials. A Technical Support Unit was established. Thereafter, capacity building across all cadres of health workers in the implementation area was done for strengthening of home based newborn care (HBNC) program, skills enhancement for identification and management of PSBI, logistics management to ensure availability of necessary supplies, monitoring and evaluation as well as providing feedback. Data was collected by the research team.