We derive and validate a novel and analytic method for estimating the probability that an epidemic has been eliminated (i.e. that no future local cases will emerge) in real time. When this probability crosses 0.95 an outbreak can be declared over with 95% confidence. Our method is easy to compute, only requires knowledge of the incidence curve and the serial interval distribution, and evaluates the statistical lifetime of the outbreak of interest. Using this approach, we rigorously show how the time-varying under-reporting of infected cases will artificially inflate the inferred probability of elimination, leading to premature (false-positive) end-of-epidemic declarations. Contrastingly, we prove that incorrectly identifying imported cases as local will deceptively decrease this probability, resulting in delayed (false-negative) declarations. Failing to sustain intensive surveillance during the later phases of an epidemic can therefore substantially mislead policymakers on when it is safe to remove travel bans or relax quarantine and social distancing advisories. World Health Organisation guidelines recommend fixed (though disease-specific) waiting times for end-of-epidemic declarations that cannot accommodate these variations. Consequently, there is an unequivocal need for more active and specialised metrics for reliably identifying the conclusion of an epidemic.

It has been well known since the 1970s that stationary black holes do not generically support scalar hair. Most of the no-hair theorems which support this depend crucially upon the assumption that the scalar field has no time dependence. Here we fill in this omission by ruling out the existence of stationary black hole solutions even when the scalar field may have time dependence. Our proof is fairly general, and in particular applies to non-canonical scalar fields and certain non-asymptotically flat spacetimes. It also does not rely upon the spacetime being a black hole.

We derive and validate a novel and analytic method for estimating the probability that an epidemic has been eliminated (i.e. that no future local cases will emerge) in real time. When this probability crosses 0.95 an outbreak can be declared over with 95% confidence. Our method is easy to compute, only requires knowledge of the incidence curve and the serial interval distribution, and evaluates the statistical lifetime of the outbreak of interest. Using this approach, we rigorously show how the time-varying under-reporting of infected cases will artificially inflate the inferred probability of elimination and hence lead to early (false- positive) end-of-epidemic declarations. Contrastingly, we prove that incorrectly identifying imported cases as local will deceptively decrease this probability, resulting in late (false-negative) declarations. Failing to sustain intensive surveillance during the later phases of an epidemic can therefore substantially mislead policymakers on when it is safe to remove travel bans or relax quarantine and social distancing advisories. World Health Organisation guidelines recommend fixed (though disease-specific) waiting times for end-of-epidemic declarations that cannot accommodate these variations. Consequently, there is an unequivocal need for more active and specialised metrics for reliably identifying the conclusion of an epidemic.

Chameleon, environmentally dependent dilaton, and symmetron gravity are three models of modified gravity in which the effects of the additional scalar degree of freedom are screened in dense environments. They have been extensively studied in laboratory, cosmological, and astrophysical contexts. In this paper, we present a preliminary investigation into whether additional constraints can be provided by studying these scalar fields around black holes. By looking at the properties of a static, spherically symmetric black hole, we find that the presence of a non-uniform matter distribution induces a non-constant scalar profile in chameleon and dilaton, but not necessarily symmetron gravity. An order of magnitude estimate shows that the effects of these profiles on in-falling test particles will be sub-leading compared to gravitational waves and hence observationally challenging to detect.

We study the existence of black holes with a noncanonical scalar field as a matter source. We prove a simple no-hair theorem which rules out the existence of stationary, asymptotically flat black holes possessing scalar hair for a wide class of noncanonical scalar field theories. This applies to scalar field theories which are of the form of K-essence theories. In particular, we rule out the existence of such black holes in the ghost condensate model, and in large sectors of the dilatonic ghost condensate and Dirac-Born-Infeld models.