We develop and estimate a DSGE model for the Brazilian economy as part of the macroeconomic modeling framework of the Central Bank of Brazil. The model combines the building blocks of standard DSGE models (e.g., price and wage rigidities and adjustment costs) with the following features that better describe the Brazilian economy: (i) a fiscal authority pursuing an explicit target for the primary surplus; (ii) administered or regulated prices as part of the consumer price index; (iii) external finance for imports, which amplifies the effects of changes in external financial conditions on the economy; and (iv) imported goods used in the production of intermediate goods. It also includes the presence of financially constrained households. We estimate the model with Bayesian techniques, using data since 1999, when inflation targeting was implemented in Brazil. Evaluation based on impulse response functions, moment conditions, variance error decomposition, and initial forecasting exercises suggests that the model can be a useful tool for policy analysis and forecasting. visit to the Central Bank of Chile, to which we are very grateful. We are also grateful to Tomiê Sugahara and José R. da Costa e Silva for their participation in early stages of the project, and Angelo Fasolo for his comments and suggestions.

No abstract

No abstract

In a global games setup with imperfect commitment technology, we show that low targets—the ones close to the optimal inflation under perfect commitment—are unattainable, leading to a trade‐off between low and credible targets. Moreover, since noisy public information helps to coordinate expectations around the announced target, our article supports unconventional policy prescriptions. First, weaker countries need to impose higher targets. Second, less transparency helps to make the announced target credible and then reduces the optimally announced target. Results are based on a general central bank loss function encompassing models traditionally used to discuss central bank decisions.

No abstract

We extended the Cole and Kehoe model (1996) by adding trade and debt denominated in national currency. We then evaluated some external debt defaults and steep national currency devaluations occurred during last decades. Although default is unlikely, steep devaluation has been repeatedly triggered during financial distresses. It helps to overcome financial crisis as it improves trade balance and reduces national debt level. On the other hand, expected devaluation hurts welfare through both higher national debt cost and reductions in the investment level. We modeled such trade-offs and showed that trade openness, by and large, improves the expected welfare as it allows for a better devaluation-response technology. We ran model simulations based on past 48 crises occurred in 32 middle-income countries, reasonably fitting devaluation and default responses observed as from 1971.
Com base em uma versão estendida do modelo Cole and Kehoe (1996), avaliamos eventos de default e de desvalorizações cambiais. Historicamente, as desvalorizações têm ajudado na superação de crises financeiras ao estimular a balança comercial e ao reduzir o valor real da divida publica denominada em moeda nacional. Por outro lado, a expectativa de uma possível desvalorização produz efeitos negativos sobre o bem-estar: aumento do custo da divida e redução do nível de investimento privado. Modelamos esses trade-offs e mostramos que a abertura comercial melhora o bem-estar ao potencializar o efeito da desvalorização de câmbio sobre a balança comercial. Computamos simulações numéricas baseadas em 48 crises ocorridas em 32 países, e obtivemos resultados alinhados com as desvalorizações e os defaults observados desde 1971

A primeira grande Expedição Científica Austríaca ao Brasil no início século XIX produziu, além da coleta de diversas espécies e peças de coleções antropológicas e etnográficas, vários relatos das experiências de seus participantes. Um destes, Johann Natterer, cuja permanência em nossas terras foi a mais demorada, não pode em vida concluir sua obra, mas deixou centenas de cartas que relatam suas experiências e vivências pelas regiões do Brasil. Seus textos, ainda pouco trabalhados no Brasil, são, neste artigo, analisados como prática social que busca evidenciar por meio da linguagem posições ideológicas de caráter eurocêntrico.PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Europeus. Relatos. Linguagem. Índios. ABSTRACTThe first major Austrian Scientific Expedition to Brazil in early nineteenth century produced, in addition to collecting various species and parts of anthropological and ethnographic collections, many compilations of the experiences of their participants. One of these, Johann Natterer, whose permanence in our land was the most time consuming, could not complete his work in life time, but left hundreds of letters that described his knowledge and his experiences of life in the regions of Brazil. This article analyses his texts, which had not been yet studied in Brazil, as a social practice that seeks to demonstrate through language the Eurocentric ideological character.KEYWORDS: Europeans. Reports. Language. Indians.

No abstract