Background: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to escalate. There is urgent need to stratify patients. Understanding risk of deterioration will assist in admission and discharge decisions, and help selection for clinical studies to indicate where risk of therapy-related complications is justified. Methods: An observational cohort of patients acutely admitted to two London hospitals with COVID-19 and positive SARS-CoV-2 swab results was assessed. Demographic details, clinical data, comorbidities, blood parameters and chest radiograph severity scores were collected from electronic health records. Endpoints assessed were critical care admission and death. A risk score was developed to predict outcomes. Findings: Analyses included 1,157 patients. Older age, male sex, comorbidities, respiratory rate, oxygenation, radiographic severity, higher neutrophils, higher CRP and lower albumin at presentation predicted critical care admission and mortality. Non-white ethnicity predicted critical care admission but not death. Social deprivation was not predictive of outcome. A risk score was developed incorporating twelve characteristics: age > 40, male, non-white ethnicity, oxygen saturations < 93%, radiological severity score > 3, neutrophil count > 8.0 x10 9 /L, CRP > 40 mg/L, albumin < 34 g/L, creatinine > 100 μmol/L, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and chronic lung disease. Risk scores of 4 or higher corresponded to a 28-day cumulative incidence of critical care admission or death of 40.7% (95% CI: 37.1 to 44.4), versus 12.4% (95% CI: 8.2 to 16.7) for scores less than 4. Interpretation: Our study identified predictors of critical care admission and death in people admitted to hospital with COVID-19. These predictors were incorporated into a risk score that will inform clinical care and stratify patients for clinical trials.
Background
Concerns have been raised that patients requiring emergency care may not have accessed healthcare services during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown.
Methods
This case control study aimed to understand changes in characteristics and diagnosis of patients attending a large UK Emergency Department (ED) during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March–May 2020) compared with equivalent weeks in 2019.
Results
We found a 50.7% drop in first attendances to the ED in 2020. Likelihood of attendance and admission decreased for paediatric patients and increased for patients ≥ 46 years, and for men. Likelihood of admission increased for all Black ethnic groups and for patients from the most deprived index of multiple deprivation quintiles. This shift to an older, male, more deprived patient population with greater representation of ethnic minority groups was amplified in the ‘Infections’ diagnostic category.
Conclusions
COVID-19 has dramatically impacted ED usage. Our analysis contributes to local resource planning and understanding of changes in healthcare-seeking behaviour during the pandemic. Future research to identify positive behaviour changes could help sustain a reduction in non-urgent visits in the longer term.
Aims/Objectives/BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic continues to escalate. There is urgent need to stratify patients. Understanding risk of deterioration will assist in admission and discharge decisions, and help selection for clinical studies to indicate where risk of therapy-related complications is justified.Methods/DesignAn observational cohort of patients acutely admitted to two London hospitals with COVID-19 and positive SARS-CoV-2 swab results was assessed. Demographic details, clinical data, comorbidities, blood parameters and chest radiograph severity scores were collected from electronic health records. Endpoints assessed were critical care admission and death. A risk score was developed to predict outcomes.Results/ConclusionsAnalyses included 1,157 patients. Older age, male sex, comorbidities, respiratory rate, oxygenation, radiographic severity, higher neutrophils, higher CRP and lower albumin at presentation predicted critical care admission and mortality. Non-white ethnicity predicted critical care admission but not death. Social deprivation was not predictive of outcome. A risk score was developed incorporating twelve characteristics: age>40, male, non-white ethnicity, oxygen saturations<93%, radiological severity score>3, neutrophil count>8.0 x109/L, CRP>40 mg/L, albumin<34 g/L, creatinine>100 µmol/L, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and chronic lung disease. Risk scores of 4 or higher corresponded to a 28-day cumulative incidence of critical care admission or death of 40.7% (95% CI: 37.1 to 44.4), versus 12.4% (95% CI: 8.2 to 16.7) for scores less than 4.ConclusionOur study identified predictors of critical care admission and death in people admitted to hospital with COVID-19. These predictors were incorporated into a risk score that will inform clinical care and stratify patients for clinical trials.
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