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Home to exceedingly diverse and highly endemic flora in the Malesian region, the Philippines is highly vulnerable to species loss due to climate change. The lack of baseline ecological and biogeographic information in the country, which are requisites to effective conservation, compounds this problem. To address this, we used maximum entropy modeling to predict suitable habitats of four Philippine endemic trees – Astronia cumingiana, and three threatened species, Astrocalyx calycina, Beccarianthus ickisii, and B. pulcherrimus (Astronieae: Melastomataceae) – under current climate conditions. We then predicted changes in their habitats for the years 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 under two future climate scenarios. We also assessed the level of protection that the species receive using the current protected area boundaries. Our models showed potentially suitable habitats for all species outside of their observed occurrence under the present climate, but their niches are generally predicted to shrink and ascend to higher altitudes when projected under future climate scenarios. The overlaps of their suitable niches outside protected area boundaries also increase southward, with Mindanao island possibly harboring the greatest number of unprotected Astronieae species. Our findings contribute to the emerging field of environmental niche modeling in the country and support the need to re-envision the country’s protected area system to move towards climate-smart local conservation strategies.

Yunnan Province, southwest China, has a monsoonal climate suitable for a mix of fire-driven savannas and fire-averse forests as alternate stable states, and has vast areas with savanna physiognomy. Presently, savannas are only formally recognised in the dry valleys of the region, and a no-fire policy has been enforced nationwide since the 1980s. Misidentification of savannas as forests may have contributed to their low protection level and fire-suppression may be contributing to vegetation change towards forest states through woody encroachment. Here, we present an analysis of vegetation and land-use change in Yunnan for years 1986, 1996, 2006, and 2016 by classifying Landsat imagery using a hybrid of unsupervised and supervised classification. We assessed how much savanna area had changed over the three decades (area loss, fragmentation), and of this how much was due to direct human intervention versus vegetation transition. We also assessed how climate (mean annual temperature, aridity), landscape accessibility (slope, distance to roads), and fire had altered transition rates. Our classification yielded accuracy values of 77.89%, 82.16%, 94.93%, and 86.84% for our four maps, respectively. In 1986, savannas had the greatest area of any vegetation type in Yunnan at 40.30%, whereas forest cover was 30.78%. Savanna coverage declined across the decades mainly due to a drop in open parkland savannas, while forest cover remained stable. Savannas experienced greater fragmentation than forests. Savannas suffered direct loss of coverage to human uses and to woody encroachment. Savannas in more humid environments switched to denser vegetation at a higher rate. Fire slowed the rate of conversion away from savanna states and promoted conversion towards them. We identified remaining savannas in Yunnan that can be considered when drafting future protected areas. Our results can inform more inclusive policy-making that considers Yunnan’s forests and savannas as distinct vegetation types with different management needs.

Southeast Asia (SEA) has seen strong climatic oscillations and fluctuations in sea levels during the Quaternary. The impact of past climate changes on the evolution and distribution of local flora in SEA is still poorly understood. Here we aim to infer how the Quaternary climate change affects the evolutionary process and range shifts in two pine species. We investigated the population genetic structure and diversity using cytoplasmic DNA markers, and performed ecological niche modeling to reconstruct the species past distribution and to project range shift under future climates. We found substantial gene flow across the continuous distribution of the subtropical Pinus yunnanensis. In contrast, the tropical Pinus kesiya showed a strong population structure in accordance with its disjunct distribution across montane islands in Indochina and the Philippines. A broad hybrid zone of the two species occurs in southern Yunnan. Asymmetric introgression from the two species was detected in this zone with dominant mitochondrial gene flow from P. yunnanensis and chloroplast gene flow from P. kesiya. The observed population structure suggests a typical postglaciation expansion in P. yunnanensis, and a glacial expansion and interglacial contraction in P. kesiya. Ecological niche modeling supports the inferred demographic history and predicts a decrease in range size for P. kesiya under future climates. Our results suggest that tropical pine species in SEA have undergone evolutionary trajectories different from high latitude species related to their Quaternary climate histories. We also illustrate the need for urgent conservation actions in this fragmented landscape.

Premise: Rafflesia are rare holoparasitic plants. In the Philippines, all but one species are found only on single islands. This study aimed to better understand the factors contributing to this distribution pattern. Specifically, we sought to determine whether narrow environmental tolerances of host and/or parasite species might explain their island endemicity, or, instead or in addition, the limited distribution of Rafflesia species is the result of a narrow overlap between the environmental requirements of host and parasite. Methods: We used Maxent species distribution modeling to identify areas with suitable habitat for R. lagascae, R. lobata, and R. speciosa and their Tetrastigma host species. These analyses were carried out for current climate conditions as well as two future climate change scenarios. Key results: Whereas species distribution models indicated suitable environmental conditions for the Tetrastigma host species in many parts of the Philippines, considerably fewer areas have suitable conditions for the three Rafflesia species. Some of these areas are found on islands from which they have not been reported. All three species will face significant threats as a result of climate change. For R. lagascae and R. lobata, these may include a loss of suitable area as a result of changes to the distribution of their host species. Conclusions: Our results suggest that limited inter-island dispersal abilities and/or specific environmental requirements are likely responsible for the current pattern of island endemicity of the three Rafflesia species, rather than the environmental requirements of their Tetrastigma host species.