Pandeglang Regency is designated as the agricultural center of Banten Province. Dedicating a specific area to a protected agricultural area often faces problems of not considering the population growth and food needs. Therefore, this research aims to evaluate the spatial pattern and allocation of the agricultural area based on the comparison between spatial planning policy and land-use model on the current trend in 2031 using CA-Markov model. This research uses remotely sensed data from SPOT satellites in 2006, 2012, and 2018 as the base for the 2031 model. The result shows that the number of paddy fields in Pandeglang fluctuated from 2006 until 2031. In 2031, the paddy field is predicted to increase by around 5%. This increase hasn’t been able to keep up with the population growth, as the increase of settlement area exceeds the paddy field at 27%, so that the ratio is around 1:5. The protected agricultural area policy hasn’t been implemented thoroughly, leaving most of it at the risk of conversion. Recommendation towards this challenge and the planning policy is headed towards preserving environment and agricultural area by properly allocating and considering the pattern and rate of urban growth to achieve better food security and sustainability.
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