We estimate fluid sources around a subducted seamount along the northern Hikurangi subduction margin of New Zealand, using thermomechanical numerical modelling informed by wedge structure and porosities from multichannel seismic data. Calculated fluid sources are input into an independent fluid-flow model to explore the key controls on overpressure generation to depths of 12 km. In the thermomechanical models, sediment transport through and beneath the wedge is calculated assuming a pressure-sensitive frictional rheology. The change in porosity, pressure and temperature with calculated rock advection is used to compute fluid release from compaction and dehydration. Our calculations yield more precise information about source locations in time and space than previous averaged estimates for the Hikurangi margin. The volume of fluid release in the wedge is smaller than previously estimated from margin-averaged calculations (∼14 m 3 yr −1 m −1 ), and is exceeded by fluid release from underlying (subducting) sediment (∼16 m 3 yr −1 m −1 ). Clay dehydration contributes only a small quantity of fluid by volume (∼2 m 3 yr −1 m −1 from subducted sediment), but the integrated effect is still significant landward of the seamount. Fluid source terms are used to estimate fluid pressures around a subducting seamount in the fluid-flow models, using subducted sediment permeability derived from porosity, and testing two end-members for décollement permeability. Models in which the décollement acts as a fluid conduit predict only moderate fluid overpressure in the wedge and subducting sediment. However, if the subduction interface becomes impermeable with depth, significant fluid overpressure develops in subducting sediment landward of the seamount. The location of predicted fluid overpressure and associated dehydration reactions is consistent with the idea that short duration, shallow, slow slip events (SSEs) landward of the seamount are caused by anomalous fluid pressures; alternatively, it may result from frictional effects of changing clay content along the subduction interface.

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Expedition 344 summaryProc. IODP | Volume 344 2 from velocity-strengthening to velocity-weakening friction, and shear becomes localized. The onset of seismogenic behavior is correlated with the intersection of the 100°-150°C isotherm and the subduction thrust (Hyndman et al., 1997;Oleskevich et al., 1999). With increasing depth down the subduction thrust, the frictional characteristics undergo a second transition either due to the juxtaposition with the forearc mantle or because the rocks are heated to 350°-450°C and can no longer store elastic stresses needed for rupture. Transitional regions between the three zones have conditional stability and can host rupture but are generally not thought to be regions where large earthquakes initiate.Although this three-zone two-dimensional view of the subduction thrust provides a reasonable framework, it is simplistic. Rupture models for large subduction earthquakes suggest significant fault plane heterogeneity in slip and moment release that in three dimensions is characterized as patchiness (Bilek and Lay, 2002). Additionally, we now know the transition zone from stable to unstable sliding is not simple but hosts a range of fault behaviors that includes creep events, strain transients, slow and silent earthquakes, and low-frequency earthquakes (Peng and Gomberg, 2010;Beroza and Ide, 2011;Ide, 2012).Fundamentally unknown are the processes that change fault behavior from stable sliding to stick-slip behavior. Understanding these processes is important for understanding earthquakes, the mechanics of slip, and rupture dynamics. For a fault to undergo unstable slip, fault rocks must have the ability to store elastic strain, be velocity weakening, and have sufficient stiffness. Hypotheses for mechanisms leading to the transition between stable and unstable slip invoke temperature, pressure, and strain-activated processes that lead to downdip changes in the mechanical properties of rocks. These transitions are also sensitive to fault zone composition, lithology, fabric, and fluid pressures.The composition of the material in the fault zone and its contrast with the surrounding wall rock play a key role in rock frictional behavior. The frictional state of the incoming sediment changes progressively with increasing temperature and pressure as it travels downdip. Important lithologic factors influencing friction are composition, fabric, texture, and cementation of rocks, as well as fluid pore pressure (Bernabé et al., 1992;Moore and Saffer, 2001;Beeler, 2007;Marone and Saffer, 2007;Collettini et al., 2009). For example, fault rocks with high phyllosilicate content are generally weaker than rocks with low phyllosilicate content (Ikari et al., 2011). Sediment properties including porosity, permeability, consolidation state, and alteration history also exert a strong influence on fault zone behavior. At erosive margins, where the plate boundary cuts into the overriding plate, the composition and strength of the upper plate is also important (McCaffrey, 1993).Field observations and la...

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[1] We examine the thermal effects of seamount subduction. Seamount subduction may cause transient changes in oceanic crust hydrogeology and plate boundary fault position. Prior to subduction, seamounts provide high-permeability pathways between the basaltic crustal aquifer and overlying ocean that can focus fluid flow and efficiently cool the oceanic crust. As the seamount is subducted, the high-permeability pathway is closed, shutting down the advective transfer of heat. If significant fluid flow occurs, it would be restricted after seamount subduction and would result in a redistribution of heat warming the trench and cooling landward parts of the system. Additionally, subducting seamounts can influence the position of the plate boundary fault that has thermal consequences by locally controlling the proportions of incoming sediment that subduct and accrete. Shifting the décollement to the seafloor at the trench in the wake of seamount subduction causes limited cooling focused at the toe of the margin wedge. We apply these features of seamount subduction to a thermal model for the Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment transect on the margin of Japan. Models with hydrothermal circulation provide an explanation for anomalously high surface heat flux observations near the trench. They yield temperatures of $100°C−295°C for the rupture area of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake. Temperatures in the region of episodic tremor and slip are estimated at $290°C -325°C, $70°C cooler than a model with no fluid circulation.