The compilation of a database of soil carbon and land use is described, from which models of soil carbon dioxide emissions across the United Kingdom (UK) can be run. The database gives soil organic carbon, sand, silt and clay contents and bulk densities weighted to reference layers from 0 to 30 cm and from 30 to 100 cm depths. The data are interpolated from information on soil types and land use on a 1 km grid across the UK and are used to estimate soil carbon stocks. For 1990, the baseline year for the Kyoto Protocol on carbon emissions, the estimate is 4562 Tg soil organic carbon in the top 1 m of soil across the UK, with an average density of 18 kg m 22 . The data can be reported by layer (e.g. 54% in topsoils) and country (e.g. 48% in Scotland) as well as by soil and land type.
This study provides the ®rst detailed estimate of riverine organic carbon¯uxes in British rivers, as well as highlighting major gaps in organic carbon data in national archives. Existing data on organic carbon and suspended solids concentrations collected between 1989 and 1993, during routine monitoring by the River Puri®cation Boards (RPBs) in Scotland and the National River Authorities (NRAs) in England and Wales, were used with annual mean¯ows to estimate¯uxes of dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) in British rivers. Riverine DOC exports during 1993 varied from 7 . 7±103 . 5 kg ha À1 year À1 , with a median¯ux of 31 . 9 kg ha À1 year À1 in the 85 rivers for which data were available. There was a trend for DOC¯uxes to increase from the south and east to the north and west. A predictive model based on mean soil carbon storage in 17 catchments, together with regional precipitation totals, explained 94% of the variation in the riverine DOC exports in 1993. This model was used to predict riverine DOC¯uxes in regions where no organic carbon data were available. Calculated and predicted¯uxes were combined to produce an estimate for exports of DOC to tidal waters in British rivers during 1993 of 0Á68+0Á07 Mt. Of this total, rivers in Scotland accounted for 53%, England 38% and Wales 9%. Scottish blanket peats would appear to be the largest single source of DOC exports in British rivers. An additional 0 . 20 Mt of organic carbon were estimated to have been exported in particulate form in 1993, approximately two±thirds of which was contributed by English rivers. It is suggested that riverine losses of organic carbon have the potential to aect the long-term dynamics of terrestrial organic carbon pools in Britain and that rivers may regulate increases in soil carbon pools brought about by climate change.
We present results from modelling studies, which suggest that, at most, only about 10-20% of recently observed soil carbon losses in England and Wales could possibly be attributable to climate warming. Further, we present reasons why the actual losses of SOC from organic soils in England and Wales might be lower than those reported.
To predict the response of C-rich soils to external change, models are needed that accurately reflect the conditions of these soils. Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils -Sequestration and Emissions (ECOSSE) is a model that allows simulations of soil C and N turnover in both mineral and organic soils using only the limited meteorological, land-use and soil data that is available at the national scale. Because it is able to function at field as well as national scales if appropriate input data are used, field-scale evaluations can be used to determine uncertainty in national simulations. Here we present an evaluation of the uncertainty expected in national-scale simulations of Scotland, using data from the National Soil Inventory of Scotland. This data set provides measurements of C change for the range of soils, climates and land-use types found across Scotland. The simulated values show a high degree of association with the measurements in both total C and change in C content of the soil. Over all sites where land-use change occurred, the average deviation between the simulated and measured values of percentage change in soil C was less than the experimental error (11% simulation error, 53% measurement error). This suggests that the uncertainty in the national-scale simulations will be ~11%. Only a small bias in the simulations was observed compared to the measured values, suggesting that a small underestimate of the change in soil C should be expected at the national scale (-4%).
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