Abstract. The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term (1920-1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO 2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO 2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr '•, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and 02 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with 02 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO 2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the E1 Ni•o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO 2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from standlevel process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system.•Authorship after McGuire and Sitch is alphabetical. 2Also at U.S. Geo...

We report the first near infrared (NIR) imaging of a circumstellar annular disk around the young (~8 Myr), Vega-like star, HR 4796A. NICMOS coronagraph observations at 1.1 and 1.6 microns reveal a ring-like symmetrical structure peaking in reflected intensity 1.05 arcsec +/- 0.02 arcsec (~ 70 AU) from the central A0V star. The ring geometry, with an inclination of 73.1 deg +/- 1.2 deg and a major axis PA of 26.8 deg +/- 0.6 deg, is in good agreement with recent 12.5 and 20.8 micron observations of a truncated disk (Koerner, et al. 1998). The ring is resolved with a characteristic width of less than 0.26 arcsec (17 AU) and appears abruptly truncated at both the inner and outer edges. The region of the disk-plane inward of ~60 AU appears to be relatively free of scattering material. The integrated flux density of the part of the disk that is visible (greater than 0.65 arcsec from the star) is found to be 7.5 +/- 0.5 mJy and 7.4 +/- 1.2 mJy at 1.1 and 1.6 microns, respectively. Correcting for the unseen area of the ring yields total flux densities of 12.8 +/- 1.0 mJy and 12.5 +/- 2.0 mJy, respectively (Vega magnitudes = 12.92 /+- 0.08 and 12.35 +/-0.18). The NIR luminosity ratio is evaluated from these results and ground-based photometry of the star. At these wavelengths Ldisk(lambda)/L*(lambda) = 1.4 +/- 0.2E-3 and 2.4 +/- 0.5E-3, giving reasonable agreement between the stellar flux scattered in the NIR and that which is absorbed in the visible and re-radiated in the thermal infrared. The somewhat red reflectance of the disk at these wavelengths implies mean particle sizes in excess of several microns, larger than typical interstellar grains. The confinement of material to a relatively narrow annular zone implies dynamical constraints on the disk particles by one or more as yet unseen bodies.Comment: 14 pages, 1 figure for associated gif file see: http://nicmosis.as.arizona.edu:8000/AAS99/FIGURE1_HR4796A_ApJL.gif . Accepted 13 January 1999, Astrophyical Journal Letter

Summary Historical and projected climate trends for high latitudes show substantial temporal and spatial variability. To identify uncertainties in simulating carbon (C) dynamics for pan‐Arctic tundra, we compare the historical and projected responses of tundra C storage from 1921 to 2100 between simulations by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the pan‐Arctic and the Kuparuk River Basin, which was the focus of an integrated study of C dynamics from 1994 to 1996. In the historical period from 1921 to 1994, the responses of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (RH) simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan‐Arctic are correlated with the same factors; NPP is positively correlated with net nitrogen mineralization (NMIN) and RH is negatively correlated with mean annual soil moisture. In comparison to the historical period, the spatially aggregated responses of NPP and RH for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan‐Arctic in our simulations for the projected period have different sensitivities to temperature, soil moisture and NMIN. In addition to being sensitive to soil moisture during the projected period, RH is also sensitive to temperature and there is a significant correlation between RH and NMIN. We interpret the increases in NPP during the projected period as being driven primarily by increases in NMIN, and that the correlation between NPP and temperature in the projected period is a result primarily of the causal linkage between temperature, RH, and NMIN. Although similar factors appear to be controlling simulated regional‐and biome‐scale C dynamics, simulated C dynamics at the two scales differ in magnitude with higher increases in C storage simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin than for the pan‐Arctic at the end of the historical period and throughout the projected period. Also, the results of the simulations indicate that responses of C storage show different climate sensitivities at regional and pan‐Arctic spatial scales and that these sensitivities change across the temporal scope of the simulations. The results of the TEM simulations indicate that the scaling of C dynamics to a region of arctic tundra may not represent C dynamics of pan‐Arctic tundra because of the limited spatial variation in climate and vegetation within a region relative to the pan‐Arctic. For reducing uncertainties, our analyses highlight the importance of incorporating the understanding gained from process‐level studies of C dynamics in a region of arctic tundra into process‐based models that simulate C dynamics in a spatially explicit fashion across the spatial domain of pan‐Arctic tundra. Also, efforts to improve gridded datasets of historical climate for the pan‐Arctic would advance the ability to assess the responses of C dynamics for pan‐Arctic tundra in a more realistic fashion. A major challenge will be to incorporate topographic controls over soil moisture in assessing the response of C storage for pan‐Arctic tundra.

We present the discovery of a candidate substellar object in a survey of young stars in the solar vicinity using the sensitivity and spatial resolution afforded by the NICMOS coronagraph on the Hubble Space Telescope. The H=12.1 mag object was discovered approximately 2 ′′ from the TW Hydrae Association member CoD −33 • 7795 (TWA 5), and the photometry implies a spectral type M8−M8.5, with a temperature of ∼2600K. We estimate that the probability of a chance alignment with a background object of this nature is < 2 × 10 −5 , and therefore postulate the object (TWA 5B) is physically associated at a projected separation of 100 AU. Given the likely youth of the primary (∼ 10 Myr), current brown dwarf cooling models predict a mass of ≈ 20 Jupiter masses for TWA 5B.

Urban trees influence temperatures in cities. However, their effectiveness at mitigating urban heat in different climatic contexts and in comparison to treeless urban green spaces has not yet been sufficiently explored. Here, we use high-resolution satellite land surface temperatures (LSTs) and land-cover data from 293 European cities to infer the potential of urban trees to reduce LSTs. We show that urban trees exhibit lower temperatures than urban fabric across most European cities in summer and during hot extremes. Compared to continuous urban fabric, LSTs observed for urban trees are on average 0-4 K lower in Southern European regions and 8-12 K lower in Central Europe. Treeless urban green spaces are overall less effective in reducing LSTs, and their cooling effect is approximately 2-4 times lower than the cooling induced by urban trees. By revealing continental-scale patterns in the effect of trees and treeless green spaces on urban LST our results highlight the importance of considering and further investigating the climate-dependent effectiveness of heat mitigation measures in cities.