International audienceA 66-station GPS network spanning central Greece, first observed in 1989, has been occupied fully on three occasions: June 1989, October 1991 and May 1993. Subsets of this network bounding the Gulf of Korinthos have also been occupied in June 1995, October 1995, May 1996 and September/October 1997. The first three occupations were processed using a fiducial GPS methodology, whereas later surveys were processed using CODE precise orbits. Combination of data from different surveys to yield smooth site velocities requires global network translations at each epoch to compensate for errors in the realization of the reference frame. This method provides a posteriori estimates of the relative coordinate errors and reference frame noise. Only one earthquake, the 1995 June 15 Egion event, has caused significant local coseismic displacement, and its effects on the interseismic velocity field are removed using an elastic dislocation model.We constrain the orientation of the 100 yr triangulation–GPS velocity estimates of Davies et al. (1997) using 14 sites common to the two networks. The goodness of fit of this transformation indicates that the short-term and 100 yr geodetic estimates of deformation are highly compatible. We infer that short-term geodetic studies are capable of determining longer-term deformation rates provided that transient, local effects can be modelled. From the combined velocity field, we estimate principal strains and rigid-body rotation rates at points on a regular grid using data from neighbouring sites. Strain rates are high within the Gulf of Korinthos and much lower elsewhere. The extension rate across the Gulf of Korinthos increases from east to west. Comparison of the extension rate with historical and recent rates of seismic release of strain reveals significant medium-term seismic hazard in the western Gulf of Korinthos, and may also indicate long-term aseismic strain.

SUMMARY This paper presents estimates of rates of mean sea level (MSL) change around the UK, based on a larger tide gauge data set and more accurate analysis methods than have been employed so far. The spatial variation of the trend in MSL is found to be similar to that inferred from geological information and from advanced geodetic techniques, which is a similar conclusion to that arrived at in the previous studies. The tide gauge MSL trends for 1901 onwards are estimated to be 1.4 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 larger than those inferred from geology or geodetic methods, suggesting a regional sea level rise of climate change origin several one‐tenths of mm per year lower than global estimates for the 20th century. However, UK MSL change cannot be described in terms of a simple linear increase alone but includes variations on interannual and decadal timescales. The possible sources of variation in a ‘UK sea level index’ are explored. Air pressure is clearly one such possible source but its direct local forcing through the ‘inverse barometer’ accounts for only one‐third of the observed variability. A number of larger scale atmospheric and ocean processes must also play important roles, but modelling them satisfactorily and separating the individual contributions present a major challenge. As regards future regional UK sea level changes, we conclude that there is no basis for major modification to existing projections for the 2080s included in the 2002 UK Climate Impacts Programme studies.

Abstract.The recent

[1] Dynamic models of atmospheric movement over the Mount Etna volcano are used to calculate the path delays affecting radar caused by variable water vapour in the troposphere. We compare these model results with the equivalent differential radar interferogram generated by two ERS-2 SAR images taken 35 days apart and the water vapour delay retrievals from a network of fourteen GPS stations distributed over the volcano. The atmospheric model delay field agrees well with the long-wavelength spatial differences measured by InSAR and those measured by GPS.

S U M M A R YWe compared estimates of crustal velocities within Great Britain based on continuous global positioning system (CGPS) measurements to predictions from a model of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The observed and predicted values for vertical motion are highly correlated indicating that GIA is the dominant geodynamic process contributing to this field. In contrast, motion of the Eurasian plate dominates the horizontal motion component. A model of plate motion was adopted to remove this signal in order to estimate intraplate horizontal motion associated with GIA. However, a coherent pattern of horizontal motion was not evident in the resulting velocity field. We adopted a recently published model of the British-Irish ice sheet to predict vertical crustal motion for a large number of spherically symmetric Earth viscosity models. Our results show that the adopted ice model is capable of producing a high-quality fit to the observations. The CGPS-derived estimates of vertical motion provide a useful constraint on the average value of viscosity within the upper mantle. Values of model lithospheric thickness and lower mantle viscosity are less well resolved, however. A suite of predictions based on an alternative ice model indicates that the vertical motion data are relatively insensitive to uncertainties in the ice loading history and so the constraints on upper mantle viscosity are robust.

The glacial isostatic adjustment of the UK region has been considered in a number of recent studies. We have revisited this problem in order to: (i) highlight some key issues with regard to limitations in the ice modelling approach adopted in these studies and (ii) consider the constraints provided from observations of crustal motion available via continuous global positioning system monitoring. With regard to the first aim, we have found that: (i) previous studies have significantly overestimated ice thicknesses in regions where trim line field constraints were adopted and (ii) the duration of the glaciation phase of the UK ice sheet is a critical aspect of the model and that discrepancies in this model component have led to inconsistent inferences of Earth model parameters. With regard to the second aim, we have found that predictions of horizontal velocities (relative to a chosen site) based on a UK ice model calibrated to fit the regional sea-level database capture the geometry of the signal well but only account for 10% of the magnitude (for a range of Earth models).

S U M M A R YTwo independent continuous global positioning system (CGPS) processing strategies, based on a double-difference regional network and a globally transformed precise point positioning solution, provide horizontal and vertical crustal motion estimates for Great Britain. Absolute gravity and geological information from late Holocene sea level data further constrain the vertical motion estimates. For 40 CGPS stations we estimate station velocities and associated uncertainties using maximum likelihood estimation, assuming the presence of white and coloured noise. Horizontal station velocity estimates agree to <1 mm yr −1 between the two CGPS processing strategies and closely follow predicted plate motions. Residual velocities, generally <1 mm yr −1 , follow no regular pattern, that is, there is no discernible internal deformation, nor any dependence on station monumentation or time-series length. Vertical station velocity estimates for the two CGPS processing strategies agree to ∼1 mm yr −1 , but show an offset of ∼1 mm yr −1 with respect to the absolute gravity (AG) estimates. We attribute this offset to a bias related to known issues in current CGPS results and correct for it by AG-alignment of our CGPS estimates of vertical station velocity. Both CGPS estimates and AG-aligned CGPS estimates of present-day vertical crustal motions confirm the pattern of subsidence and uplift in Great Britain derived from Holocene sea level data for the last few thousand years: ongoing subsidence on Shetland, uplift in most areas of Scotland, and subsidence in large areas of England and Wales.

Researchers investigating climate change have used historical tide gauge measurements from all over the world to investigate the changes in sea level that have occured over the last century or so. A high quality tide gauge record can enable such changes in sea level to be estimated with an acceptable level of uncertainty if several decades of data are used. However, such estimates are a combination of any true sea level variations and any vertical movements of the land at the specific tide gauge. For a tide gauge record to be used to determine the climate related component, it is therefore necessary to correct for the vertical land movement component of the observed change in sea level.In 1990, the IESSG and POL started developing techniques based on the Global Positioning System (GPS) for measuring vertical land movements at tide gauges in the UK. This paper briefly reviews these early developments and shows how they led to the establishment of continuous GPS (CGPS) stations at a number of tide gauges. The paper then goes on to discuss the use of absolute gravity (AG), as an independent technique for measuring vertical land movements at tide gauges. The most recent results, from CGPS time series dating back to 1997 and AG time series dating back to 1995/6, are then used to demonstrate the complementarity of these two techniques and their potential for providing site-specific estimates of vertical land movements at tide gauges in the UK.