Abstract. In May 2003, severe forest fires in southeast Russia resulted in smoke plumes extending widely across the Northern Hemisphere. This study combines satellite data from a variety of platforms (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)) and vertical aerosol profiles derived with Raman lidar measurements with results from a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to understand the transport processes that led to the large haze plumes observed over North America and Europe. The satellite images provided a unique opportunity for validating model simulations of tropospheric transport on a truly hemispheric scale. Transport of the smoke occurred in two directions: Smoke travelling northwestwards towards Scandinavia was lifted over the Urals and arrived over the Norwegian Sea. Smoke travelling eastwards to the Okhotsk Sea was also lifted, it then crossed the Bering Sea to Alaska from where it proceeded to Canada and was later even observed over Scandinavia and Eastern Europe on its way back to Russia. Not many events of this kind, if any, have been observed, documented and simulated with a transport model comprehensively. The total transport time was about 17 days. We compared transport model simulations using meteorological analysis data from both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in order to find out how well this event could be simulated using these two datasets. Although differences between the two simulations are found on small scales, both agree remarkably well with each other and with the observations on large scales. On the basis of the available observations, it cannot be decided which simulation was more realistic.
Abstract. Summer 2004 saw severe forest fires in Alaska and the Yukon Territory that were mostly triggered by lightning strikes. The area burned (>2.7×10 6 ha) in the year 2004 was the highest on record to date in Alaska. Pollutant emissions from the fires lead to violation of federal standards for air quality in Fairbanks. This paper studies deep convection events that occurred in the burning regions at the end of June 2004. The convection was likely enhanced by the strong forest fire activity (so-called pyro-convection) and penetrated into the lower stratosphere, up to about 3 km above the tropopause. Emissions from the fires did not only perturb the UT/LS locally, but also regionally. POAM data at the approximate location of Edmonton (53.5 • N, 113.5 • W) show that the UT/LS aerosol extinction was enhanced by a factor of 4 relative to unperturbed conditions. Simulations with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART with the deep convective transport scheme turned on showed transport of forest fire emissions into the stratosphere, in qualitatively good agreement with the enhancements seen in the POAM data. A corresponding simulation with the deep convection scheme turned off did not result in such deep vertical transport. Lidar measurements at Wisconsin on 30 June also show the presence of substantial aerosol loading in the UT/LS, up to about 13 km. In fact, the FLEXPART results suggest that this aerosol plume originated from the Yukon Territory on 25 June.
The meridional transport of water vapor into the High Arctic, accompanied by dry enthalpy and clouds, impacts the surface radiative forcing. The evolution of one such moist intrusion over 9–11 February 2010 is presented. The event is analyzed using a unique blend of measurements including a new pan‐Arctic retrieval of column water vapor from the Microwave Humidity Sounders, water vapor profiles from a Raman lidar and a ground‐based microwave radiometer at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL), in Eureka (80°N, 86°W), on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic. A radiation model reveals the intrusion is associated with a 17 W m−2 average increase in downwelling longwave irradiance. Optically thin clouds, as observed by the lidar, contribute a further 20 W m−2 to the downwelling longwave irradiance at their peak. Intrusion events are shown to be a regular occurrence in the Arctic winter with implications for the understanding of the mechanisms driving Arctic Amplification.
Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.
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