Prediction of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) is still largely based on islet cell antibodies (ICAs), but it may be improved by combined analysis with other humoral markers. We examined autoantibodies to insulin (IAAs), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD), and M(r) 37,000 and M(r) 40,000 fragments of islet antigens (37 and 40 kDa) together with ICA subtypes in 101 family members with ICAs > or = 10 Juvenile Diabetes Foundation units (JDF U) followed for up to 14 years, of whom 18 have developed IDDM. Life-table analysis showed a 43% risk of IDDM within 10 years for those with ICAs > or = 10 JDF U, rising to 53% for those with ICAs > or = 20 JDF U. The risk for ICAs > or = 10 JDF U was 62% in the family members in the youngest age quartile (< 13.2 years) and fell with increasing age to 4% in those > 40.7 years of age (P = 0.03). ICAs > or = 10 JDF U combined with IAAs gave a risk of 84% (P = 0.03 compared with IAA-), and ICAs > or = 10 JDF U combined with GAD antibodies gave a risk of 61% (P = 0.018). The risk for ICAs > or = 10 JDF U with antibodies to 37-kDa antigen was 76% (P < 0.0001). Risk increased with the number of autoantibodies, from 8% for ICAs alone to 88% with > or = 3 autoantibodies (14 cases detected) (P < 0.0001). The increased risk associated with multiple antibodies was observed independent of age.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Insulin, glutamate decarboxylase (GAD) and the protein tyrosine phosphatase-like molecule IA-2 are major targets of humoral autoimmunity in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM). These autoantibodies are heterogeneous with respect to age and patient human leukocyte antigen (HLA) phenotype. We have previously demonstrated that GAD and IA-2 antibodies potentially identify different subsets of IDDM patients. The aim of this study was to determine whether GAD and IA-2 autoantibodies were associated with different HLA DR phenotypes. We studied 160 patients with IDDM onset before age 16 years. At disease onset serum was tested for GAD and IA-2 antibodies by immunoprecipitation by in vitro-translated 35S-methionine labelled recombinant proteins. IA-2 antibodies were significantly associated with HLA DR4: 67 (86%) of 78 patients with HLA DR4 vs 31 (38%) of 82 non-DR4 patients had IA-2 antibodies (Pc < 0.0001) and IA-2 antibody levels were higher in patients with HLA DR4 (Pc < 0.0001). In contrast, GAD antibodies were more prevalent (Pc < 0.05) and antibody levels highest (Pc < 0.01) in patients with HLA DR3 phenotypes. These data provide further evidence that, in IDDM, production and titre of major autoantibody specificities are associated with HLA class II alleles.

Factors associated with residual insulin secretion and spontaneous remission in Type 1 diabetic patients are important in the evaluation of treatment aimed at modifying the natural history of Type 1 DM. We investigated the effect of parameters at onset on residual beta cell function in 215 Type 1 DM children and adolescents. Blood gas analysis, HLA, GAD and IA-2 antibodies before the start of insulin treatment were recorded for each patient. Residual C-peptide secretion was assessed by the glucagon test, and parameters of metabolic control (HbA 1c and insulin dose U kg) were examined at disease onset and after 3, 6, and 12 months. Residual C-peptide secretion throughout the first year of disease was significantly reduced in patients with disease onset before age 5. Multiple regression analysis showed that low pH at onset showed a significant and independent association with reduced C-peptide at 3 months (p = 0.02) and that the detection of GAD antibodies had a significant independent association with decreased Cpeptide secretion at 6 months of follow-up (p = 0.02). Insulin requirement was higher in the youngest patients group and in patients with GAD antibodies. Spontaneous insulin remission (HbA 1c Ͻ6 % and insulin Ͻ0.3 U kg −1 day −1 ) occurred in 22/192 (11 %) patients at 3 months of follow-up, in 15/190 (8 %) patients at 6 months and in 8/169 (5 %) patient at 12 months. Remission was more prevalent in older patients (p = 0.01) and in patients without detectable GAD antibodies: (14/64 vs 8/128, p = 0.001). Sex, IA-2 antibodies and HLA DR were not independently associated with C-peptide secretion, insulin requirement or remission in the first year of Type 1 DM. This study confirms the association of young age, severe acidosis at disease onset, and GAD antibodies with decreased residual beta-cell function and spontaneous remission during the first year of insulin treatment. These factors should be considered in trials evaluating therapies to retain beta-cell function and induce remission at and after disease onset.