A modeling framework was developed to determine phosphorus loadings to Lake Okeechobee from watersheds located north of the lake. This framework consists of the land-based model CREAMS-WT, the in-stream transport model QUAL2E, and an interface procedure to format the land-based model output for use by the in-stream model. QUAL2E hydraulics and water quality routines were modified to account for flow routing and phosphorus retention in both wetlands and stream channels. Phosphorus loadings obtained from previous applications of CREAMS-WT were used by QUAL2E, and calibration and verification showed that QUAL2E accurately simulated seasonal and annual phosphorus loadings from a watershed. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses indicated that the accuracy of monthly loadings can be improved by using better estimates of in-stream phosphorus decay rates, ground water phosphorus concentrations, and runoff phosphorus concentrations as input to QUAL2E. (KEY TERMS: hydraulics; modeling; nonpoint source pollution; phosphorus; surface water hydrology; water quality; wetlands; uncertainty analysis.) nonpoint pollution that ultimately reaches Lake Okeechobee has not been established. As phosphorus is transported to the lake, it may be retained temporarily or permanently in stream channels and wetlands via physical, chemical, and biological processes. Examples of these processes are the settling of organic phosphorus, the sorption of dissolved phosphorus to suspended particulate matter or sediment, and the uptake of phosphorus by aquatic macrophytes and algae. The ability to accurately assess phosphorus retention, or assimilation, is important, because assimilation can significantly reduce phosphorus loads ultimately reaching Lake Okeechobee.
As part of the Sarasota Bay National Estuary Program (NEP) evaluation of environmental problems, modeling tools were used to estimate pollution loadings from diverse sources, including surface runoff, baseflow, wastewater treatment plant discbarges, septic tanks, and direct deposition of rainfall on the bay surface. After assessing the relative impacts of the pollution sources, alternative management strategies were identified and analyzed. These strategies focused primarily on future development, and included structural and nonstructural best management practices (BMPs), as well as a regional wastewater treatment plan. Loading reductions, along with planning-level cost data and estimates of feasibility and other potential benefits, were used to identify the most promising alternatives.
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