Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

This paper discusses the physical linkage between the surface and the atmosphere, and demonstrates how even slight changes in surface conditions can have a pronounced effect on weather and climate. Observational and modeling evidence are presented to demonstrate the influence of landscape type on the overlying atmospheric conditions. The albedo, and the fractional partitioning of atmospheric turbulent heat flux into sensible and latent fluxes is shown to be particularly important in directly affecting local and regional weather and climate. It is concluded that adequate assessment of global climate and climate change cannot be achieved unless mesoscale landscape characteristics and their changes over time can be accurately determined.

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We have conducted large-eddy simulations (LES) of the atmospheric boundary layer with surface heat Rux variations on a spatial scale comparable to the boundary layer depth.We first ran a simulation with a horizontally homogeneous heat flux. In general the results are similar to those of previous large-eddy simulations. The model simulates a field of convective eddies having approximately the correct velocity and spatial scales, and with the crucial property that kinetic energy is transported vigorously upwards through the middle levels. However. the resolved temperature variance is only about half what is observed in the laboratory or the atmosphere. This deficiencywhich is shared by many other large-eddy simulations -has dynamic implications. particularly in the pressure/temperature interaction terms of the heat flux budget. Recent simulations by other workers at much higher resolution than ours appear to be more realistic in this respect.The surface heat flux perturbations were one-dimensional and sinusoidal with a wavelength equal to 1.3 times the boundary-layer depth. The mean wind was zero. Results were averaged over several simulations and over time. There is a mean circulation. with ascent over the heat flux maxima (vertical velocity -0.1~~) and descent over the heat flux minima. Turbulence is consistently stronger over the heat flux maxima. The horizontal velocity variance components (calculated with respect to the horizontal average) become unequal, implying that convective eddies are elongated parallel to the surface heat flux perturbations.A consideration of the budgets for temperature and velocity suggests several simplifying concepts,