No abstract

To predict the spread of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19, the critical values of spread indicators have been determined for deciding on the introduction of restrictive measures using the city of Moscow as an example. A model was developed using classical methods of mathematical modeling based on exponential regression, the accuracy of the forecast was estimated, and the shortcomings of mathematical methods for predicting the spread of infection for more than two weeks. As a solution to the problem of the accuracy of long-term forecasts for more than two weeks, two models based on machine learning methods are proposed: a recurrent neural network with two layers of long short-term memory (LSTM) blocks and a 1-D convolutional neural network with a description of the choice of an optimization algorithm. The forecast accuracy of ML models was evaluated in comparison with the exponential regression model and one another using the example of data on the number of COVID-19 cases in the city of Moscow.

Even among single-criteria discrete problems, there are NP-hard ones. Multicriteria problems on graphs in many cases become intractable. Currently, priority is given to the study of applied multicriteria problems with specific criteria; there is no classification of criteria according to their type and content. There are few studies with fuzzy criteria, both weight and topological. Little attention is paid to the stability of solutions, and this is necessary when modeling real processes due to their dynamism. It is also necessary to study the behavior of solution sets for various general and individual problems. The theory of multicriteria optimization is a rather young branch of science and requires the development of not only particular methods, but also the construction of a methodological basis. This is also true in terms of discrete graph-theoretic optimization. In this paper, we propose to get acquainted with multicriteria problems for a special class of prefractal graphs. Modeling natural objects or processes using graphs often involves weighting edges with many numbers. The author proposes a general formulation of a multicriteria problem on a multi-weighted prefractal graph; defines three sets of alternatives—Pareto, complete and lexicographic; and proposes a classification of individual problems according to the set of feasible solutions. As an example, we consider an individual problem of placing a multiple center with two types of weight criteria and two types of topological ones. An algorithm with estimates of all criteria of the problem is proposed.

NP-complete problems in graphs, such as enumeration and the selection of subgraphs with given characteristics, become especially relevant for large graphs and networks. Herein, particular statements with constraints are proposed to solve such problems, and subclasses of graphs are distinguished. We propose a class of prefractal graphs and review particular statements of NP-complete problems. As an example, algorithms for searching for spanning trees and packing bipartite graphs are proposed. The developed algorithms are polynomial and based on well-known algorithms and are used in the form of procedures. We propose to use the class of prefractal graphs as a tool for studying NP-complete problems and identifying conditions for their solvability. Using prefractal graphs for the modeling of large graphs and networks, it is possible to obtain approximate solutions, and some exact solutions, for problems on natural objects—social networks, transport networks, etc.

Social networks have firmly entered the lives of billions of global Internet users worldwide. They communicate in social networks, play online games, make purchases, organise online events — exchange content from all walks of life [1, 2]. The most popular and well-known services in Russia are Vkontakte (vk.com), Youtube.com, Facebook.com, Odnoklassniki (Ok.ru), etc. The interfaces of such platforms allo — fake accounts. In this paper, we propose an approach to detect bots using the LiveJournal social network as an example. For this, we investigated the characteristics of the user’s egograph and performed a comparative analysis of the results of the classification algorithms.