MHD-based global space weather models have mostly been developed and maintained at academic institutions. While the ``free spirit'' approach of academia enables the rapid emergence and testing of new ideas and methods, the lack of long-term stability and support makes this arrangement very challenging. This paper describes a successful example of a university-based group, the Center of Space Environment Modeling (CSEM) at the University of Michigan that developed and maintained the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and its core element, the BATS-R-US extended MHD code. It took a quarter of a century to develop this capability and reach its present level of maturity that makes it suitable for research use by the space physics community through the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) as well as operational use by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

To simulate solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and predict their time of arrival and geomagnetic impact, it is important to accurately model the background solar wind conditions in which CMEs propagate. We use the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) within the the Space Weather Modeling Framework to simulate solar maximum conditions during two Carrington rotations and produce solar wind background conditions comparable to the observations. We describe the inner boundary conditions for AWSoM using the ADAPT global magnetic maps and validate the simulated results with EUV observations in the low corona and measured plasma parameters at L1 as well as at the position of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft. This work complements our prior AWSoM validation study for solar minimum conditions and shows that during periods of higher magnetic activity, AWSoM can reproduce the solar plasma conditions (using properly adjusted photospheric Poynting flux) suitable for providing proper initial conditions for launching CMEs.

Coupling between the solar wind and magnetosphere can be expressed in terms of energy transfer through the separating boundary known as the magnetopause. Geospace simulation is performed using the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) of a multi-ICME impact event on February 18–20, 2014 in order to study the energy transfer through the magnetopause during storm conditions. The magnetopause boundary is identified using a modified plasma β and fully closed field line criteria to a downstream distance of −20Re. Observations from Geotail, Themis, and Cluster are used as well as the Shue 1998 model to verify the simulation field data results and magnetopause boundary location. Once the boundary is identified, energy transfer is calculated in terms of total energy flux K, Poynting flux S, and hydrodynamic flux H. Surface motion effects are considered and the regional distribution of energy transfer on the magnetopause surface is explored in terms of dayside X>0, flank X<0, and tail cross section X=Xmin regions. It is found that total integrated energy flux over the boundary is nearly balanced between injection and escape, and flank contributions dominate the Poynting flux injection. Poynting flux dominates net energy input, while hydrodynamic flux dominates energy output. Surface fluctuations contribute significantly to net energy transfer and comparison with the Shue model reveals varying levels of cylindrical asymmetry in the magnetopause flank throughout the event. Finally existing energy coupling proxies such as the Akasofu ϵ parameter and Newell coupling function are compared with the energy transfer results.

We use the Space Weather Modeling Framework Geospace configuration to simulate a total of 122 storms from the period 2010–2019. With the focus on the storm main phase, each storm period was run for 54 hr starting from 6 hr prior to the start of the Dst depression. The simulation output of ground magnetic variations, ΔBH in particular, were compared with ground magnetometer station data provided by SuperMAG to statistically assess the Geospace model regional magnetic perturbation prediction performance. Our results show that the regional predictions at mid‐latitudes are quite accurate, but the high‐latitude regional disturbances are still difficult to predict.

We present results of 131 geomagnetic storm simulations using the University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework Geospace configuration. We compare the geomagnetic indices derived from the simulation with those observed, and use 2D cuts in the noon-midnight planes to compare the magnetopause locations with empirical models. We identify the location of the current sheet center and look at the plasma parameters to deduce tail dynamics. We show that the simulation produces geomagnetic index distributions similar to those observed, and that their relationship to the solar wind driver is similar to that observed. While the magnitudes of the Dst and polar cap potentials are close to those observed, the simulated AL index is consistently underestimated. Analysis of the magnetopause position reveals that the subsolar position agrees well with an empirical model, but that the tail flaring in the simulation is much smaller than that in the empirical model. The magnetotail and ring currents are closely correlated with the Dst index, and reveal a strong contribution of the tail current beyond 8 RE to the Dst index during the storm main phase.