Background With enough advanced notice, dengue outbreaks can be mitigated. As a climate-sensitive disease, environmental conditions and past patterns of dengue can be used to make predictions about future outbreak risk. These predictions improve public health planning and decision-making to ultimately reduce the burden of disease. Past approaches to dengue forecasting have used seasonal climate forecasts, but the predictive ability of a system using different lead times in a year-round prediction system has been seldom explored. Moreover, the transition from theoretical to operational systems integrated with disease control activities is rare. Methods and findings We introduce an operational seasonal dengue forecasting system for Vietnam where Earth observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and lagged dengue cases are used to drive a superensemble of probabilistic dengue models to predict dengue risk up to 6 months ahead. Bayesian spatiotemporal models were fit to 19 years (2002–2020) of dengue data at the province level across Vietnam. A superensemble of these models then makes probabilistic predictions of dengue incidence at various future time points aligned with key Vietnamese decision and planning deadlines. We demonstrate that the superensemble generates more accurate predictions of dengue incidence than the individual models it incorporates across a suite of time horizons and transmission settings. Using historical data, the superensemble made slightly more accurate predictions (continuous rank probability score [CRPS] = 66.8, 95% CI 60.6–148.0) than a baseline model which forecasts the same incidence rate every month (CRPS = 79.4, 95% CI 78.5–80.5) at lead times of 1 to 3 months, albeit with larger uncertainty. The outbreak detection capability of the superensemble was considerably larger (69%) than that of the baseline model (54.5%). Predictions were most accurate in southern Vietnam, an area that experiences semi-regular seasonal dengue transmission. The system also demonstrated added value across multiple areas compared to previous practice of not using a forecast. We use the system to make a prospective prediction for dengue incidence in Vietnam for the period May to October 2020. Prospective predictions made with the superensemble were slightly more accurate (CRPS = 110, 95% CI 102–575) than those made with the baseline model (CRPS = 125, 95% CI 120–168) but had larger uncertainty. Finally, we propose a framework for the evaluation of probabilistic predictions. Despite the demonstrated value of our forecasting system, the approach is limited by the consistency of the dengue case data, as well as the lack of publicly available, continuous, and long-term data sets on mosquito control efforts and serotype-specific case data. Conclusions This study shows that by combining detailed Earth observation data, seasonal climate forecasts, and state-of-the-art models, dengue outbreaks can be predicted across a broad range of settings, with enough lead time to meaningfully inform dengue control. While our system omits some important variables not currently available at a subnational scale, the majority of past outbreaks could be predicted up to 3 months ahead. Over the next 2 years, the system will be prospectively evaluated and, if successful, potentially extended to other areas and other climate-sensitive disease systems.

Marine data are needed for many purposes: for acquiring a better scientific understanding of the marine environment, but also, increasingly, as marine knowledge for decision making as well as developing products and services supporting economic growth. Data must be of sufficient quality to meet the specific users' needs. It must also be accessible in a timely manner. And yet, despite being critical, this timely access to known-quality data proves challenging. Europe's marine data have traditionally been collected by a myriad of entities with the result that much of our data are scattered throughout unconnected databases and repositories. Even when data are available, they are often not compatible, making the sharing of the information and data aggregation particularly challenging. In this paper, we present how the European Marine Observation and Data network (EMODnet) has developed over the last decade to tackle these issues. Today, EMODnet is comprised of more than 150 organizations which gather marine data, metadata, and data products and make them more easily accessible for a wider range of users. EMODnet currently consists of seven sub-portals: bathymetry, geology, physics, chemistry, biology, seabed habitats, and human activities. In addition, Sea-basin Checkpoints have been established to assess the observation capacity in the North Sea, Mediterranean, Atlantic, Baltic, Artic, and Black Sea. The Checkpoints identify whether the observation infrastructure in Europe Martín Míguez et al. EMODnet: Visions and Roles meets the needs of users by undertaking a number of challenges. To complement this, a Data Ingestion Service has been set up to tackle the problem of the wealth of marine data that remain unavailable, by reaching out to data holders, explaining the benefits of sharing their data and offering a support service to assist them in releasing their data and making them available through EMODnet. The EMODnet Central Portal (www.emodnet. eu) provides a single point of access to these services, which are free to access and use. The strategic vision of EMODnet in the next decade is also presented, together with key focal areas toward a more user-oriented service, including EMODnet for business, internationalization for global users, and stakeholder engagement to connect the diverse communities across the marine knowledge value chain.

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This paper seeks to move towards an un-encoded metadata standard supporting the description of environmental numerical models and their interfaces with other such models. Building on formal metadata standards and supported by the local standards applied by modelling frameworks, the desire is to produce a solution, which is as simple as possible yet meets the requirements to support model coupling processes. The purpose of this metadata is to allow environmental numerical models, with a first application for a hydro-meteorological model chain, to be discovered and then an initial evaluation made of their suitability for use, in particular for integrated model compositions. The method applied is to begin with the ISO19115 standard and add extensions suitable for environmental numerical models in general. Further extensions are considered pertaining to model interface parameters (or phenomena) together with spatial and temporal characteristics supported by feature types from climate science modelling language. Successful validation of parameters depends heavily on the existence of controlled vocabularies. The metadata structure formulated has been designed to strike the right balance between simplicity and supporting the purposes drawn out by interfacing the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator hydrological model to meteorological and hydraulic models and, as such, successfully provides an initial level of information to the user.Quillon Harpham (corresponding author) HR Wallingford,

Dengue is a vector-borne disease affected by meteorological factors and is commonly recorded from ground stations. Data from ground station have limited spatial representation and accuracy, which can be overcome using satellite-based Earth Observation (EO) recordings instead. EO-based meteorological recordings can help to provide a better understanding of the correlations between meteorological variables and dengue cases. This paper aimed to first validate the satellite-based (EO) data of temperature, wind speed, and rainfall using ground station data. Subsequently, we aimed to determine if the spatially matched EO data correlated with dengue fever cases from 2011 to 2019 in Malaysia. EO data were spatially matched with the data from four ground stations located at states and districts in the central (Selangor, Petaling) and east coast (Kelantan, Kota Baharu) geographical regions of Peninsular Malaysia. Spearman’s rank-order correlation coefficient (ρ) was performed to examine the correlation between EO and ground station data. A cross-correlation analysis with an eight-week lag period was performed to examine the magnitude of correlation between EO data and dengue case across the three time periods (2011–2019, 2015–2019, 2011–2014). The highest correlation between the ground-based stations and corresponding EO data were reported for temperature (mean ρ = 0.779), followed by rainfall (mean ρ = 0.687) and wind speed (mean ρ = 0.639). Overall, positive correlations were observed between weekly dengue cases and rainfall for Selangor and Petaling across all time periods with significant correlations being observed for the period from 2011 to 2019 and 2015 to 2019. In addition, positive significant correlations were also observed between weekly dengue cases and temperature for Kelantan and Kota Baharu across all time periods, while negative significant correlations between weekly dengue cases and temperature were observed in Selangor and Petaling across all time periods. Overall negative correlations were observed between weekly dengue cases and wind speed in all areas from 2011 to 2019 and 2015 to 2019, with significant correlations being observed for the period from 2015 to 2019. EO-derived meteorological variables explained 48.2% of the variation in dengue cases in Selangor. Moderate to strong correlations were observed between meteorological variables recorded from EO data derived from satellites and ground stations, thereby justifying the use of EO data as a viable alternative to ground stations for recording meteorological variables. Both rainfall and temperature were found to be positively correlated with weekly dengue cases; however, wind speed was negatively correlated with dengue cases.