This work proposes a novel approach for multiple time series forecasting. At first, multi-way delay embedding transform (MDT) is employed to represent time series as low-rank block Hankel tensors (BHT). Then, the higher-order tensors are projected to compressed core tensors by applying Tucker decomposition. At the same time, the generalized tensor Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is explicitly used on consecutive core tensors to predict future samples. In this manner, the proposed approach tactically incorporates the unique advantages of MDT tensorization (to exploit mutual correlations) and tensor ARIMA coupled with low-rank Tucker decomposition into a unified framework. This framework exploits the low-rank structure of block Hankel tensors in the embedded space and captures the intrinsic correlations among multiple TS, which thus can improve the forecasting results, especially for multiple short time series. Experiments conducted on three public datasets and two industrial datasets verify that the proposed BHT-ARIMA effectively improves forecasting accuracy and reduces computational cost compared with the state-of-the-art methods.
Completing a matrix from a small subset of its entries, i.e., matrix completion is a challenging problem arising from many real-world applications, such as machine learning and computer vision. One popular approach to solve the matrix completion problem is based on low-rank decomposition/factorization. Low-rank matrix decomposition-based methods often require a prespecified rank, which is difficult to determine in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel low-rank decomposition-based matrix completion method with automatic rank estimation. Our method is based on rank-one approximation, where a matrix is represented as a weighted summation of a set of rank-one matrices. To automatically determine the rank of an incomplete matrix, we impose L1-norm regularization on the weight vector and simultaneously minimize the reconstruction error. After obtaining the rank, we further remove the L1-norm regularizer and refine recovery results. With a correctly estimated rank, we can obtain the optimal solution under certain conditions. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that the proposed method not only has good performance in rank estimation, but also achieves better recovery accuracy than competing methods.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.