Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9  ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

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Extreme events such as drought and heatwaves are among the biggest challenges to agricultural production and food security. However, the effects of cropping systems on drought resistance of arable crops via their hydraulic behaviour remain unclear.We investigated how hydraulic traits of a field-grown pea-barley (Pisum sativum L. and Hordeum vulgare L.) mixture were affected by different cropping systems, that is, organic and conventional farming with intensive or conservation tillage. Xylem vulnerability to cavitation of both species was estimated by measuring the pressure inducing 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity (P 50 ), while the water stress plants experienced in the field were assessed using native percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity (nPLC). Pea and barley showed contrasting hydraulic behaviours: pea was less vulnerable to xylem cavitation and less stressed than barley; cropping systems affected the xylem vulnerability of barley, but not of pea. Barley grown under conventional farming with no tillage was more vulnerable and stressed than under organic farming with intensive tillage. nPLC proved to be a valuable indicator for plant water stress. Our results highlight the impact of cropping systems on crop xylem vulnerability and drought resistance, thus plant hydraulic traits, for protecting food security under future climate.

Abstract. Terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration is limited by nitrogen (N), a constraint that could intensify under CO2 fertilisation and future global change. The terrestrial C sink is estimated to currently sequester approximately a third of annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions based on an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models, which have been evaluated in their ability to reproduce observations of the C, water, and energy cycles. However, their ability to reproduce observations of N cycling and thus the regulation of terrestrial C sequestration by N has been largely unexplored. Here, we evaluate an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models with coupled C-N cycling and their performance at simulating N cycling, outlining a framework for evaluating N cycling that can be applied across terrestrial biosphere models. We find that models exhibit significant variability across N pools and fluxes, simulating different magnitudes and trends over the historical period, despite their ability to generally reproduce the historical terrestrial C sink. This suggests that the underlying N processes that regulate terrestrial C sequestration operate differently across models and may not be fully captured. Furthermore, models tended to overestimate tropical biological N fixation, vegetation C:N ratio, and soil C:N ratio but underestimate temperate biological N fixation relative to observations. However, there is significant uncertainty associated with measurements of N cycling processes given their scarcity (especially relative to those of C cycling processes) and their high spatiotemporal variability. Overall, our results suggest that terrestrial biosphere models that represent coupled C-N cycling (let alone those without a representation of N cycling) could be overestimating C storage per unit N, which could lead to biases in projections of the future terrestrial C sink under CO2 fertilisation and future global change. More extensive observations of N cycling processes are crucial to evaluate N cycling and its impact on C cycling as well as guide its development in terrestrial biosphere models.

Abstract. Agricultural production is under threat of water scarcity due to increasingly frequent and severe drought events under climate change. Whether a change in cropping systems can be used as an effective adaptation strategy against drought is still unclear. We investigated how plant water uptake patterns of a field-grown pea–barley (Pisum sativum L. and Hordeum vulgare L.) mixture, an important fodder intercrop, responded to experimental drought under four cropping systems, i.e. organic intensive tillage, conventional intensive tillage, conventional no tillage, and organic reduced tillage. Drought was simulated after crop establishment using rain shelters. Proportional contributions to plant water uptake from different soil layers were estimated based on stable water isotopes using Bayesian mixing models. Pea plants always took up proportionally more water from shallower depths than barley plants. Water uptake patterns of neither species were affected by cropping systems. Both species showed similar responses to the drought simulation and increased their proportional water uptake from the shallow soil layer (0–20 cm) in all cropping systems. Our results highlight the impact of drought on plant water uptake patterns for two important crop species and suggest that cropping systems might not be as successful as adaptation strategies against drought as previously thought.