Population ageing will accelerate in the coming decades in China. This ageing may have considerable impact on the economy and energy-related emissions, potentially affecting the global economy and global climate. By using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model we explore the impact caused by the population ageing through imposing the expected 2050 age structure on the economy and population size of 2011. Results show that gross domestic product (GDP) of China is reduced by nearly 10% as the ageing reduces consumption, labor supply and investments. However, increasing returns to capital abroad adds support to domestic demand. Ageing process in other countries can double ageing impacts on domestic consumption and encourage only a few production sectors in China. Global energy-related emissions is reduced by 700 Mt carbon dioxide (or about 70% of the 2011 emissions in Japan) due to the population ageing in China.
11Although its per capita carbon emissions are still relatively low, China's aggregated carbon 12 emissions have grown by nearly 4-fold in the last three decades, and now it is the biggest CO2 13 emitter in the world. There are many reasons for this emissions growth, and much emphasis 14 has been placed on industrial development, but previous research has estimated that 40% of 15 the growth in Chinese CO2 emissions over the 15 years to 2007 can be attributed to 16 household energy consumption. In this paper, we conduct a decomposition analysis to show 17 that in the period from 1978 to 2008 nearly 60% of the growth in Chinese household 18 emissions can be attributed to the increasing number of households and 40% to increasing 19 emissions per household. We also show that over this period emissions growth in urban 20 households has been six times that of rural households. These results have important 21 implications for policy makers seeking to promote reductions in China's CO2 emissions, 22 relating for example to family planning and urbanization. 23 24
Background: Globally, the elimination of health disparity is a significant policy target. Primary health care has been implemented as a strategy to achieve this target in China for almost 10 years. This study examined whether family doctor (FD) policy in Shanghai contributed to eliminating health disparity as expected. Methods: System dynamics modeling was performed to construct and simulate a system of health disparity formation (business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, without any interventions), a system with FD intervention (FD scenario), and three other systems with supporting policies (Policy 1/Policy 2/Policy hybrid scenario) from 2013 to 2050. Health disparities were simulated in different scenarios, making it possible to compare the BAU results with those of FD intervention and with other policy interventions. Findings: System dynamics models showed that the FD policy would play a positive role in reducing health disparities in the initial stage, and medical price control—rather than health management—was the dominant mechanism. However, in this model, the health gap was projected to expand again around 2039. The model examined the introduction of two intervention policies, with findings showing that the policy focused on socioeconomic status improvement would be more effective in reducing health disparities, suggesting that socioeconomic status is the fundamental cause of these disparities. Conclusions: The results indicate that health disparities could be optimized, but not eliminated, as long as differences in socioeconomic status persists.
Under the condition of Nanjing, the effect by the velocity variation of night ventilation on the thermal response of the south wall built by phase-change materials (PCMs) blocks with different configurations has been investigated and analyzed. It shows that the thermal performance when the PCM is placed nearby inner side in hollow block is better than that of the outer side. Meanwhile, the maximum amplitude of the temperature on the interior surface when the PCM is placed at the inner side is 58.3% higher than that of the outer side. The optimal flow velocity of both A and B is 2 m/s. Meanwhile, the minimum amplitudes of the temperature on the interior surface are 1.74°C and 3.72°C as well as the retardation coefficients are 8 h and 7 h. Compared to the structure configuration without ventilation, the heat flow was reduced 38.2% and 29.3%, respectively, and the equivalent heat resistance increased by 115.8% and 88.6%.
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