Since the early 2000s, the vegetation cover of the Loess Plateau (LP) has increased significantly, which has been fully recorded. However, the effects on relevant eco-hydrological processes are still unclear. Here, we made an investigation on the changes of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) during 2000–2018 and connected them with vegetation greening and climate change in the LP, based on the remote sensing data with correlation and attribution analysis. Results identified that the average annual ETa on the LP exhibited an obvious increasing trend with the value of 9.11 mm yr−1, and the annual ETa trend was dominated by the changes of ETa in the third quarter (July, August, and September). The future trend of ETa was predicted by the Hurst exponent. Partial correlation analysis indicated that annual ETa variations in 87.8% regions of the LP were controlled by vegetation greening. Multiple regression analysis suggested that the relative contributions of potential evapotranspiration (ETp), precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), to the trend of ETa were 5.7%, −26.3%, and 61.4%, separately. Vegetation greening has a close relationship with the Grain for Green (GFG) project and acts as an essential driver for the long-term development trend of water consumption on the LP. In this research, the potential conflicts of water demanding between the natural ecosystem and social-economic system in the LP were highlighted, which were caused by the fast vegetation expansion.
Accurately determining vegetation coverage and its changes is very important to detect the effectiveness of the Grain for Green Project (GGP) in vegetation construction in the Yellow River basin. Moreover, an understanding of the impact of human activities and the future trends of vegetation cover allows for more effective maintenance of the achievements of ecological construction. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of SPOT/ VEGETATION satellite remote sensing data from 2000 to 2017, the spatiotemporal patterns of the vegetative cover in the Yellow River basin in the last 18 years were studied using linear regression, residual analysis, and the Hurst index. The vegetation coverage of the Yellow River basin was higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest, with a relatively slow growth trend. The whole basin NDVI was relatively stable, and only approximately one-fifth of the region had a large fluctuation, mainly distributed in Ningxia and northern Shaanxi. The residual trend of the NDVI was positive in 87% of the areas in the basin, and the overall impact of human activities on the increase in NDVI was mainly promoted. The characteristics of vegetation change in the future with the same directionality were stronger than the reverse characteristics, but the area showing continuous degradation in the future still accounted for 7%, mainly distributed in Xining City, Lanzhou City, Ningxia Plain, Hetao Plain, etc., which needs further strengthening of ecological construction and protection. This study is helpful for predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics of the Yellow River basin under the background of GGP implementation and provides a theoretical basis for regional environmental protection and the future adjustment of GGP work.human disturbance, Hurst index, NDVI, spatiotemporal variation, Yellow River basin Résumé La détermination précise de la couverture végétale et de ses changements est très importante pour détecter l'efficacité du projet Grain for Green (GGP) dans la cultivation de la végétation dans le bassin fluvial de Jaune. En outre, la compréhension de l'impact des activités humaines et des tendances futures de la Article title in French: Variation spatiotemporelle et durabilite de NDVI dans le bassin fluvial de jaune.
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