Individual tree growth models are flexible and commonly used to represent growth dynamics for heterogeneous and structurally complex uneven-aged stands. Besides traditional statistical models, the rapid development of nonparametric and nonlinear machine learning methods, such as random forest (RF), boosted regression tree (BRT), cubist (Cubist) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), provides a new way for predicting individual tree growth. However, the application of these approaches to individual tree growth modelling is still limited and short of a comparison of their performance. The objectives of this study were to compare and evaluate the performance of the RF, BRT, Cubist and MARS models for modelling the individual tree diameter growth based on tree size, competition, site condition and climate factors for larch–spruce–fir mixed forests in northeast China. Totally, 16,619 observations from long-term sample plots were used. Based on tenfold cross-validation, we found that the RF, BRT and Cubist models had a distinct advantage over the MARS model in predicting individual tree diameter growth. The Cubist model ranked the highest in terms of model performance (RMSEcv [0.1351 cm], MAEcv [0.0972 cm] and R2cv [0.5734]), followed by BRT and RF models, whereas the MARS ranked the lowest (RMSEcv [0.1462 cm], MAEcv [0.1086 cm] and R2cv [0.4993]). Relative importance of predictors determined from the RF and BRT models demonstrated that the competition and tree size were the main drivers to diameter growth, and climate had limited capacity in explaining the variation in tree diameter growth at local scale. In general, the RF, BRT and Cubist models are effective and powerful modelling methods for predicting the individual tree diameter growth.

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Forest is the largest vegetation carbon pool in the global terrestrial ecosystem. The spatial distribution and change of forest biomass are of importance to reveal the surface spatial variation and driving factors, to analyze and evaluate forest productivity, and to evaluate ecological function of forest. In this study, broad-leaved forests located in a typical state nature reserve in northern subtropics were selected as the study area. Based on ground survey data and high-resolution remote sensing images, three machine learning models were used to identify the best remote sensing quantitative inversion model of forest biomass. The biomass of broad-leaved forest with 30-m resolution in the study area from 1998 to 2016 was estimated by using the best model about every two years. With the estimated biomass, multiple leading factors to cause biomass temporal change were then identified from dozens of remote sensing factors by investigating their nonlinear correlations. Our results showed that the artificial neural network (ANN) model was the best (R2 = 0.8742) among the three, and its accuracy was also much higher than that of the traditional linear or nonlinear models. The mean biomass of the broad-leaved forest in the study area from 1998 to 2016 ranged from 90 to 145 Mg ha−1, showing an obvious temporal variation. Instead of biomass, biomass change (BC) was studied further in this research. Significant correlations were found between BC in broad-leaved forest and three climate factors, including average daily maximum surface temperature, maximum precipitation, and maximum mean temperature. It was also found that BC has a strong correlation with the biomass at the previous time (i.e., two years ago). Those quantitative correlations were used to construct a linear model of BC with high accuracy (R2 = 0.8873), providing a new way to estimate the biomass change of two years later based on the observations of current biomass and the three climate factors.