The rapid development of the aviation industry significantly impacts global climate change. The carbon Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are considered two essential ways for the aviation industry to reduce emissions. This paper uses China-foreign routes, the fastest growing region in the world, as an example to calculate the actual emissions (CO2, CO, HC, NOx, SO2, and PM2.5), calculate the Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Concentration (CDEC) using the Aviation FAIR-GWP concentration method, to compare the role of the ETS and SAFs in controlling emissions until the year 2100. The results show that SAFs are more effective in controlling the pollutant emissions of the aircraft than ETS, as ETS mainly covers CO2 and ignores other greenhouse gases. However, the best way is to combine SAFs and ETS; the combined effect is much better than SAFs alone or ETS alone. The research results provide systematic suggestions for the aviation industry to reduce emissions effectively.
COVID-19 has dealt an unprecedented blow to the aviation industry since 2020. This paper applies the Interval Epsilon-Based Measure (IEBM) model to evaluate the optimal quarterly environmental efficiency of 14 global airlines of passenger and cargo subsystems during 2018-2020. Then, the Time Series Prediction method is applied to forecast the interval data of inputs and outputs from 2021 to 2022 and calculate the quarterly efficiency. Thus, the future development trends of airlines can be predicted. Furthermore, the results accord with reality can verify the credibility and accuracy of the model. Furthermore, the results show that: 1. COVID-19 has hit the passenger subsystem harder, while the freight subsystem has become more efficient; 2. The efficiency of the freight subsystem has inevitably declined in the post-epidemic era; 3. Therefore, the airlines will have a “√” shaped recovery curve in the next few years.
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