With the increasingly competitive environment in the steel market and the proposed dual carbon goals, the government will need to consider many factors, such as the realization of energy conservation and emission reduction targets, the production game between enterprises, and the adjustment of production strategies of enterprises. Therefore, this research constructs a repeated dynamic game model including carbon trading policy and other mixed reduction policies, introduces a bounded rationality output adjustment strategy, and studies the response, stability, and complexity of different scenarios in the steel industry. The results are as follows: (1) With the gradual increase in emission reduction targets, the output adjustment policies that enterprises can implement will show an increasing trend under the single carbon trading policy. (2) Under the mixed emission reduction policy, the output adjustment policies that affect enterprises with larger outputs will show an increasing trend when targets continue to increase. (3) Smaller-output enterprises will be restricted and affected by more factors, such as emission reduction targets and larger output enterprises. (4) The influence of carbon trading benchmarks on market stability region is not obvious. In summary, enterprises should comprehensively consider emission reduction policies, output adjustment policies, carbon trading benchmarks, and other factors to ensure that the enterprises and the entire market will not fall into an imbalanced state.
China’s steel industry has not yet implemented a carbon tax policy, and its benefits and impacts are still in the theoretical research stage. In addition, enterprises have an insufficient ability to respond to changes in production and sales, which seriously affects the market’s stability. The government should simultaneously start from multiple perspectives, such as energy conservation, emission reduction, dynamic adjustments, and business decisions. Therefore, this research constructs a repeated dynamic game model including carbon tax policy and other mixed reduction policies, and studies the stability and related indicators of the market. The results are as follows: (1) the output adjustment policies that enterprises can implement will show an increasing trend under the single carbon tax policy. (2) The output adjustment policies that enterprises with larger output will also show an increasing trend under the mixed emission reduction policy when emission reduction targets continue to increase. (3) Smaller-output enterprises need to be more cautious in formulating their production plans, and their output adjustment policies will be restricted and affected by more factors. In summary, enterprises should comprehensively consider emission reduction policies, output adjustment policies and other enterprises’ output changes, to ensure that the steel market will not fall into an imbalanced state.
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