Lifespan variation is a key metric of mortality that describes both individual uncertainty about the length of life and heterogeneity in population health. We propose a novel and timely lifespan variation measure, which we call the cross-sectional average inequality in lifespan, or CAL†. This new index provides an alternative perspective on the analysis of lifespan inequality by combining the mortality histories of all cohorts present in a cross-sectional approach. We demonstrate how differences in the CAL† measure can be decomposed between populations by age and cohort to explore the compression or expansion of mortality in a cohort perspective. We apply these new methods using data from 10 low-mortality countries or regions from 1879 to 2013. CAL† reveals greater uncertainty in the timing of death than the period life table–based indices of variation indicate. Also, country rankings of lifespan inequality vary considerably between period and cross-sectional measures. These differences raise intriguing questions as to which temporal dimension is the most relevant to individuals when considering the uncertainty in the timing of death in planning their life courses.
The relationship between differential mortality rates and differences in life expectancy is well understood, but how changing differential rates translate into changing differences in life expectancy has not been fully explained. To elucidate the mechanism involved, this study extends existing decomposition methods. The extended method decomposes change in the sex gap in life expectancy at birth into three components capturing the effects of the sex difference in mortality improvement (ρ-effect), life table deaths density by age (f-effect), and remaining life expectancy by age (e-effect). These three effects oppose and augment each other, depending on relative change in sex-differential mortality rates. The new method is applied to period data for 35 countries and cohort data for 25 countries. The results demonstrate how the mechanism, involving the three effects, operates to determine change in the sex difference in life expectancy. We observe the pivotal importance of the f-effect, which is predominantly negative because of lower female mortality, in favoring narrowing rather than widening of the sex gap, in shifting the overall effect to younger ages, and in exaggerating fluctuations due to crisis mortality. The new decomposition provides a more detailed basis for substantive analyses examining change in differences in life expectancy.
Average age at death; Old-age survival; Probability of dying at older age Definition Mortality at older ages refers to the risk of dying at advanced ages. However, there is no consensus on the age range to define this mortality group. Mean age at death, life expectancy at birth or mean lifetime, corresponds to the number of years an individual is expected to live, based on the year of his/her birth for cohort life tables or on the death rates in a given year for period life tables.
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