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Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an emerging transboundary infectious disease of animals with high morbidity and low mortality rates. The infection occurs in cattle, buffalo, and some closely related wild animals, with cattle and buffalo showing higher susceptibility than other species. The primary mode of disease transmission is the mechanical dispersion of bloodsucking insects. The disease symptoms, including animal fur damage, weight loss, decline in milk production, infertility, and miscarriage, lead to huge economic losses in regions and countries with LSD outbreaks. The present study aimed to analyze the incidence data of LSD in the Asian continent from January 2012 to September 2022, identify spatiotemporal clusters and risk factors of the disease, and establish a maximum entropy ecological niche model to predict high-risk areas for disease outbreaks. The studied variables included bioclimatic factors, land type, and population density. Following the screening process, 12 variables were included in the maximum entropy model. Among them, the variable contribution rates of cattle density, land cover, isothermality, buffalo density, and maximum temperature of the warmest month were 53.8%, 10.9%, 9.2%, 8.9%, and 8%, respectively. Accounting for more than 90% of the total variable contribution rate, these five variables were considered to be the important influencing factors of LSD outbreaks. According to the results, nine spatiotemporal clusters approximately matched the high-risk areas predicted by the model. The Caucasus region of Russia; the Russian border areas of Kazakhstan, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Israel; and the western regions of Iran, India, and Southeast Asia were predicted to be high-risk areas. Thus, this study provides the spatiotemporal clusters, risk factors, and high-risk areas of LSD outbreaks in the Asian continent, which can help formulate more effective disease prevention and control policies.

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Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a highly contagious disease in bovine animals. An outbreak of LSD can cause devastating economic losses to the cattle industry. To investigate the distribution characteristics of historical LSD epidemics, LSD was divided into four phases for directional distribution analysis based on trends in epidemic prevalence. Ecological niche models were developed for LSD as well as for two vectors (Stomoxys calcitrans and Aedes aegypti), and global predictive maps were generated for the probability of LSD occurrence and the potential distribution of the two LSD vectors. The models had good predictive performance (the AUC values were 0.894 for the LSD model, 0.911 for the S. calcitrans model, and 0.950 for the A. aegypti model). The LSD combined vector prediction map was generated by combining the distribution maps of Stomoxys calcitrans and Aedes aegyptiwith fuzzy overlay tool in ArcGIS. The LSD combined vector prediction map was combined with the LSD prediction map to generate the LSD vector transmission risk map. The eastern and northwestern regions of North America, the eastern and northern regions of South America, the central and southern regions of Africa, the southern region of Europe, the northwestern and southeastern regions of Asia, and the eastern region of Australia were predicted to provide suitable environmental conditions for the occurrence of LSD. Cattle density, buffalo density, and bio2 (mean diurnal range) were identified as key variables for the occurrence of LSD. The findings of this study can be useful to policymakers in developing and implementing preventive measures of LSD for the health of cattle and the cattle industry.

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