Abstract. High time-resolved aircraft data, concurrent surface measurements and air quality model simulations were explored to diagnose the processes influencing aerosol chemistry under the influence of lake-breeze circulations in a polluted region of southwestern Ontario, Canada. The analysis was based upon horizontal aircraft transects conducted at multiple altitudes across an entire lake-breeze circulation. Air mass boundaries due to lake-breeze fronts were identified in the aircraft meteorological and chemical data, which were consistent with the frontal locations determined from surface analyses. Observations and modelling support the interpretation of a lake-breeze circulation where pollutants were lofted at a lake-breeze front, transported in the synoptic flow, caught in a downdraft over the lake, and then confined by onshore flow. The detailed analysis led to the development of conceptual models that summarize the complex 3-D circulation patterns and their interaction with the synoptic flow. The identified air mass boundaries, the interpretation of the lake-breeze circulation, and the air parcel circulation time in the lake-breeze circulation (3.0 to 5.0 h) enabled formation rates of organic aerosol (OA/ CO) and SO 2− 4 to be determined. The formation rate for OA (relative to excess CO in ppmv) was found to be 11.6-19.4 µg m −3 ppmv −1 h −1 and the SO 2− 4 formation rate was 5.0-8.8 % h −1 . The formation rates are enhanced relative to regional background rates implying that lake-breeze circulations are an important dynamic in the formation of SO 2− 4 and secondary organicCorrespondence to: K. L. Hayden (katherine.hayden@ec.gc.ca) aerosol. The presence of cumulus clouds associated with the lake-breeze fronts suggests that these enhancements could be due to cloud processes. Additionally, the effective confinement of pollutants along the shoreline may have limited pollutant dilution leading to elevated oxidant concentrations.
Observations from the 2007 Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met 2007) in Southern Ontario, Canada, were used to evaluate predictions of primary organic aerosol (POA) and two other carbonaceous species, black carbon (BC) and carbon monoxide (CO), made for this summertime period by Environment Canada's AURAMS regional chemical transport model. Particle component-based factor analysis was applied to aerosol mass spectrometer measurements made at one urban site (Windsor, ON) and two rural sites (Harrow and Bear Creek, ON) to derive hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA) factors. A novel diagnostic model evaluation was performed by investigating model POA bias as a function of HOA mass concentration and indicator ratios (e.g. BC/HOA). Eight case studies were selected based on factor analysis and back trajectories to help classify model bias for certain POA source types. By considering model POA bias in relation to co-located BC and CO biases, a plausible story is developed that explains the model biases for all three species. <br></br> At the rural sites, daytime mean PM<sub>1</sub> POA mass concentrations were under-predicted compared to observed HOA concentrations. POA under-predictions were accentuated when the transport arriving at the rural sites was from the Detroit/Windsor urban complex and for short-term periods of biomass burning influence. Interestingly, the daytime CO concentrations were only slightly under-predicted at both rural sites, whereas CO was over-predicted at the urban Windsor site with a normalized mean bias of 134%, while good agreement was observed at Windsor for the comparison of daytime PM<sub>1</sub> POA and HOA mean values, 1.1 μg m<sup>−3</sup> and 1.2 μg m<sup>−3</sup>, respectively. Biases in model POA predictions also trended from positive to negative with increasing HOA values. Periods of POA over-prediction were most evident at the urban site on calm nights due to an overly-stable model surface layer. This model behaviour can be explained by a combination of model under-estimation of vertical mixing at the urban location, under-representation of PM emissions for on-road traffic exhaust along major urban roads and highways, and a more structured allocation of area POA sources such as food cooking and dust emissions to urban locations. A downward trend in POA bias was also observed at the urban site as a function of the BC/HOA indicator ratio, suggesting a possible association of POA under-prediction with under-representation of diesel combustion sources. An investigation of the emission inventories for the province of Ontario and the nearby US state of Indiana also suggested that the top POA area emission sources (food cooking, organic-bound to dust, waste disposal burning) dominated over mobile and point sources, again consistent with a mobile under-estimation. <br></br> We conclude that more effort should be placed at reducing uncertainties in the treatment of several large POA emission sources, in...
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