Hepatotoxicity (liver damage) is a common problem in drug treatment trials but is observed only indirectly through biomarkers measured in the blood. This creates the need to infer an individual's unobserved liver function dynamically using blood tests and other patient baseline characteristics. Major statistical challenges include high dimensionality, irregular time observation points over patients, presence of missing observations, and noise involved in measurement and biological processes. This article introduces a class of multivariate Bayesian dynamic stochastic models for detecting and forecasting changes in an individual's liver function in two situations: without and with drug. These models separate measurement error from variation inherent in a biological process, and describe the underlying process of liver detoxification, whereby, drug affects liver function which in turn induces changes in observed analytes. We apply the Bayesian methodology to make an inference. A clinical toxicity study is examined, together with simulated data. The results suggest that changes in observed analytes can be captured by the proposed models.
The effects of hyperthyroidism on electrophysiological properties and intracellular free calcium transients in single adult rat cardiomyocytes were studied using conventional microelectrodes and time-resolved single cell fura-2 fluorescence microscopy. Under control conditions, resting membrane potentials and triggered action potentials were not different in euthyroid and hyperthyroid myocytes. Calcium transients produced by electrical stimulation, however, were markedly abbreviated in hyperthyroid myocytes. During a train of stimuli, the duration of the calcium transients at half peak amplitude (half time) was 124 +/- 14 ms at the fifth beat in hyperthyroid cells vs. 287 +/- 35 ms in euthyroid cells. Isoproterenol (1 microM) prolonged time to 50% repolarization (APD50) of the action potentials and increased the peak calcium transients in both euthyroid and hyperthyroid myocytes. It also shortened the half time of the calcium transients in euthyroid myocytes but had little effect on the half time in hyperthyroid cells. These data are consistent with the electrophysiology and mechanical performance in intact euthyroid and hyperthyroid cardiac tissues, and the intrinsic changes in hyperthyroid tissues can therefore be illustrated in single ventricular myocytes. Furthermore, the results suggest that alterations in intracellular calcium handling by sarcoplasmic reticulum may account for contractile changes of the heart induced by hyperthyroidism.
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