We consider a collection of populations modelled by the prototypical chaotic Ricker map, relevant to the population growth of species with non-overlapping generations. The growth parameter of each population patch is influenced by the local mean field of its neighbourhood, and we explore the emergent patterns in such a parametrically coupled network. In particular, we examine the dynamics and distribution of the local populations, as well as the total biomass. Our significant finding is the following: When the range of coupling is sufficiently large, namely, when enough neighbouring populations influence the growth rate of a population, the system yields remarkably large biomass values that are very far from the mean. These extreme events are relatively rare and uncorrelated in time. We also find that at any point in time, exceedingly large population densities emerge in a few patches, analogous to an extreme event in space. Thus, we suggest a new mechanism in coupled chaotic systems that naturally yield extreme events in both time and space.
We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a closed region where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model, with an individual becoming infected on contact with another infected individual. We investigate the persistence of contagion qualitatively and quantitatively, under increasing heterogeneity in the partitioning of the population into different disease compartments, as well as increasing heterogeneity in the phases of the disease among individuals within a compartment. We observe that when the initial population is uniform, consisting of individuals at the same stage of disease progression, infection arising from a contagious seed does not persist. However when the initial population consists of randomly distributed refractory and susceptible individuals, a single source of infection can lead to sustained infection in the population, as heterogeneity facilitates the de-synchronization of the phases in the disease cycle of the individuals. We also show how the average size of the window of persistence of infection depends on the degree of heterogeneity in the initial composition of the population. In particular, we show that the infection eventually dies out when the entire initial population is susceptible, while even a few susceptibles among an heterogeneous refractory population gives rise to a large persistent infected set.
We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a closed region where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model, with an individual becoming infected on contact with another infected individual within a given range. We focus on the role of synchronization in the persistence of contagion. Our key result is that higher degree of synchronization, both globally in the population and locally in the neighborhoods, hinders persistence of infection. Importantly, we find that early short-time asynchrony appears to be a consistent precursor to future persistence of infection, and can potentially provide valuable early warnings for sustained contagion in a population patch. Thus transient synchronization can help anticipate the long-term persistence of infection. Further we demonstrate that when the range of influence of an infected individual is wider, one obtains lower persistent infection. This counter-intuitive observation can also be understood through the relation of synchronization to infection burn-out.
We explore the emergence of persistent infection in two patches where the phases of disease progression of the individuals is given by the well known SIRS cycle modelling non-fatal communicable diseases. We find that a population structured into two patches with significantly different initial states, yields persistent infection, though interestingly, the infection does not persist in a homogeneous population having the same average initial composition as the average of the initial states of the two patches. This holds true for inter-patch links ranging from a single connection to connections across the entire inter-patch boundary. So a population with spatially uniform distribution of disease phases leads to disease extinction, while a population spatially separated into distinct patches aids the long-term persistence of disease. After transience, even very dissimilar patches settle down to the same average infected sub-population size. However the patterns of disease spreading in the patches remain discernibly dissimilar, with the evolution of the total number of infecteds in the two patches displaying distinct periodic wave forms, having markedly different amplitudes, though identical frequencies. We quantify the persistent infection through the size of the asymptotic infected set. We find that the number of inter-patch links does not affect the persistence in any significant manner. The most important feature determining persistence of infection is the disparity in the initial states of the patches, and it is clearly evident that persistence increases with increasing difference in the constitution of the patches. So we conclude that populations with very non-uniform distributions, where the individuals in different phases of disease are strongly compartmentalized spatially, lead to sustained persistence of disease in the entire population.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.