The study evaluates the role of R&D, human capital, and technology spillovers in influencing India's long-run productivity growth. The primary contributions of the article are: (1) analyzing the applicability of various endogenous growth models in the Indian context, while only R&D driven endogenous growth models have been studied so far, (2) highlighting the role of technology spillovers through FDI and import channels in affecting India's productivity at the aggregate level, as opposed to the existing industry level analysis and, (3) the first study to identify the potential non-linear effects of the variables of interest. The main findings are: (a) FDI and human capital influence India's long-term productivity growth, while R&D based models or technology spillovers via the import channel show mixed evidence of support, (b) the decline in FDI has had a more adverse effect on the economy than the positive effect of increased FDI. Therefore, sustained increase in human capital and FDI is recommended.

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We analyze the influence of qualitative and quantitative communications of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on inflation expectations of professional forecasters and draw out implications for policy. Estimating Carroll-type epidemiological models of expectation formation under information rigidities, we get a large speed of adjustment of professional forecasters’ expectations. Analysis of the determinants of inflation forecasts, inflation surprises, and forecaster disagreement reveals significant influence of quantitative RBI communications in the form of inflation projections. This effect is prominent for shorter-horizon forecasts and after adoption of flexible inflation targeting. Macroeconomic fundamentals like lagged inflation and repo rate also significantly influence inflation forecasts. Choice of words in the RBI monetary policy statements has more impact after October 2016, when the monetary policy committee became the decision-making body. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58

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