Droughts are complex and gradually evolving conditions of extreme water deficits which can compromise livelihoods and ecological integrity, especially in fragile arid and semi-arid regions that depend on rainfed farming, such as Kitui West in south-eastern Kenya. Against the background of low ground-station density, 10 gridded rainfall products and four gridded temperature products were used to generate an ensemble of 40 calculations of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to assess uncertainties in the onset, duration, and magnitude of past droughts. These uncertainties were driven more by variations between the rainfall products than variations between the temperature products. Remaining ambiguities in drought occurrence could be resolved by complementing the quantitative analysis with ground-based information from key informants engaged in disaster relief, effectively formulating an ensemble approach to SPEI-based drought identification to aid decision making. The reported trend towards drier conditions in Eastern Africa was confirmed for Kitui West by the majority of data products, whereby the rainfall effect on those increasingly dry conditions was subtler than just annual and seasonal declines and greater annual variation of rainfall, which requires further investigation. Nevertheless, the effects of increasing droughts are already felt on the ground and warrant decisive action.

No abstract

Climate variability and change are some of the most pressing environmental challenges in semi-arid Kenya and Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) and are associated with persistent droughts, dry spells and erratic rains. The present study aimed at determining exposure and adaptation mechanisms among selected small-scale farmers cultivating drought tolerant crops in Wote, Makueni County, Eastern Kenya in the period 2003 to 2013. The sampled 120 farmers cultivate sorghum, cow peas and pigeon peas, which are some of the dominant multipurpose crops. Data collection methods included the use of semi-structured questionnaires. Results indicated that household level vulnerability was caused by exposure to extreme events: Drought (100%) and erratic rains (59%). Key drought adaptation means were drought resistant crops, 65%; terracing, 28%; and crop diversification, 13%. A multiple regression model, R 2 =0.319, indicated that age, gender and land size influenced adaptation choices significantly <0.05=0.027, 0.043 and 0.011, respectively. The results reveal prevailing exposure to extreme events at household level and further existing influence of responses by household social characteristics. From the results, the study mainly recommends adoption of alternative income activities, including on farm value addition, coupling of indigenous and modern adaptation mechanisms and provision of comprehensive climate information services.

PDF Titles in the Working Paper Series aim to disseminate interim results on agroforestry research and practices and stimulate feedback from the scientific community. Other publication series from the World Agroforestry Centre include: Technical Manuals, Occasional Papers and the Trees for Change Series.

Droughts are complex and gradually evolving conditions of extreme water deficits which can compromise livelihoods and ecological integrity, especially in fragile arid and semi-arid regions that depend on rainfed farming, such as Kitui West in south-eastern Kenya. Against the background of low ground-station density, 10 gridded rainfall products and four gridded temperature products were used to generate an ensemble of 40 calculations of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to assess uncertainties in the onset, duration and magnitude of past droughts. These uncertainties were driven more by variations between the rainfall products than variations between the temperature products. Remaining ambiguities in drought occurrence could be resolved by complementing the quantitative analysis with ground-based information from key informants engaged in disaster relief, effectively formulating an ensemble approach to SPEI-based drought identification to aid decision making. The reported trend towards drier conditions in Eastern Africa was confirmed for Kitui West by the majority of data products, whereas the rainfall effect on the increasingly dry conditions was more subtle than annual and seasonal declines and greater annual variation, which warrants further investigation. Nevertheless, the effects of increasing droughts are already felt on the ground and warrant decisive action.

No abstract

Climate variability is frequently associated with instances of dry spells and droughts, which principally result from highly variable rainfall and increasing temperatures. In mixing agro ecosystems, these phenomena primarily affected crop and livestock practices of smallholder farmers through generating social, economic and environmental losses. Resulting water scarcity, in quality and quantity, at household and landscape level is likely to negatively affect major water dependent livelihoods. In the event of associated and perceived climate variability impacts, households in Wote area of Eastern Kenya at individual level institute adaptations to manage these impacts. The present study used semi structured questionnaires and a focus group discussion to populate household's perceptions and adaptation mechanisms. This study results revealed that households perceived that climatic change and associated impacts are getting more severe. These include instances of higher temperatures and more variable season onset and a wide range of ecosystem deterioration indicators including effects on land health and vegetative cover. Anomalies and means computed from Gridded 10 year rainfall and temperature records from the Climate Research Unit-University of East Anglia (CRU) partially demonstrate similarity to some of these observations. Sampled households employ a wide range of adaptations strategies, principally crop based practices such as cultivation of fast maturing crops and crop diversification. These practices aim at building resilience, taking advantage of new opportunities and can primarily reduce the unforeseen damage and losses resulting from extreme climatic events. Hence, emphasis should be given to crop-based strategies, value addition, forecast based action and financing and localization of water harvesting.