Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of inbreeding and inbreeding depression requires unbiased estimation of inbreeding depression across diverse mating systems. However, studies estimating inbreeding depression often measure inbreeding with error, for example, based on pedigree data derived from observed parental behavior that ignore paternity error stemming from multiple mating. Such paternity error causes error in estimated coefficients of inbreeding (f) and reproductive success and could bias estimates of inbreeding depression. We used complete "apparent" pedigree data compiled from observed parental behavior and analogous "actual" pedigree data comprising genetic parentage to quantify effects of paternity error stemming from extra-pair reproduction on estimates of f, reproductive success, and inbreeding depression in free-living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia). Numerous studies have shown that, in normally outbreeding organisms, inbred offspring resulting from matings among relatives are typically less fit than outbred offspring resulting from matings * These authors contributed equally to this work. Paternity error caused widespread error in estimates of

Inbreeding depression, the deterioration in mean trait value in progeny of related parents, is a fundamental quantity in genetics, evolutionary biology, animal and plant breeding, and conservation biology. The magnitude of inbreeding depression can be quantified by the inbreeding load, typically measured in numbers of lethal equivalents, a population genetic quantity that allows for comparisons between environments, populations or species. However, there is as yet no quantitative assessment of which combinations of statistical models and metrics of inbreeding can yield such estimates. Here, we review statistical models that have been used to estimate inbreeding load and use population genetic simulations to investigate how unbiased estimates can be obtained using genomic and pedigree‐based metrics of inbreeding. We use simulated binary viability data (i.e., dead versus alive) as our example, but the concepts apply to any trait that exhibits inbreeding depression. We show that the increasingly popular generalized linear models with logit link do not provide comparable and unbiased population genetic measures of inbreeding load, independent of the metric of inbreeding used. Runs of homozygosity result in unbiased estimates of inbreeding load, whereas inbreeding measured from pedigrees results in slight overestimates. Due to widespread use of models that do not yield unbiased measures of the inbreeding load, some estimates in the literature cannot be compared meaningfully. We surveyed the literature for reliable estimates of the mean inbreeding load from wild vertebrate populations and found an average of 3.5 haploid lethal equivalents for survival to sexual maturity. To obtain comparable estimates, we encourage researchers to use generalized linear models with logarithmic links or maximum‐likelihood estimation of the exponential equation, and inbreeding coefficients calculated from runs of homozygosity, provided an assembled reference genome of sufficient quality and enough genetic marker data are available.

Extra-pair reproduction is widely hypothesized to allow females to avoid inbreeding with related socially paired males. Consequently, numerous field studies have tested the key predictions that extra-pair offspring are less inbred than females’ alternative within-pair offspring, and that the probability of extra-pair reproduction increases with a female's relatedness to her socially paired male. However, such studies rarely measure inbreeding or relatedness sufficiently precisely to detect subtle effects, or consider biases stemming from failure to observe inbred offspring that die during early development. Analyses of multigenerational song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) pedigree data showed that most females had opportunity to increase or decrease the coefficient of inbreeding of their offspring through extra-pair reproduction with neighboring males. In practice, observed extra-pair offspring had lower inbreeding coefficients than females’ within-pair offspring on average, while the probability of extra-pair reproduction increased substantially with the coefficient of kinship between a female and her socially paired male. However, simulations showed that such effects could simply reflect bias stemming from inbreeding depression in early offspring survival. The null hypothesis that extra-pair reproduction is random with respect to kinship therefore cannot be definitively rejected in song sparrows, and existing general evidence that females avoid inbreeding through extra-pair reproduction requires reevaluation given such biases.

The Southeast Asian Sunda archipelago harbors a rich biodiversity with a substantial proportion of endemic species. The evolutionary history of these species has been drastically influenced by environmental forces, such as fluctuating sea levels, climatic changes, and severe volcanic activities. Orangutans (genus: Pongo), the only Asian great apes, are well suited to study the relative impact of these forces due to their well-documented behavioral ecology, strict habitat requirements, and exceptionally slow life history. We investigated the phylogeographic patterns and evolutionary history of orangutans in the light of the complex geological and climatic history of the Sunda archipelago. Our study is based on the most extensive genetic sampling to date, covering the entire range of extant orangutan populations. Using data from three mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes from 112 wild orangutans, we show that Sumatran orangutans, Pongo abelii, are paraphyletic with respect to Bornean orangutans (P. pygmaeus), the only other currently recognized species within this genus. The deepest split in the mtDNA phylogeny of orangutans occurs across the Toba caldera in northern Sumatra and, not as expected, between both islands. Until the recent past, the Toba region has experienced extensive volcanic activity, which has shaped the current phylogeographic patterns. Like their Bornean counterparts, Sumatran orangutans exhibit a strong, yet previously undocumented structuring into four geographical clusters. However, with 3.50 Ma, the Sumatran haplotypes have a much older coalescence than their Bornean counterparts (178 kya). In sharp contrast to the mtDNA data, 18 Y-chromosomal polymorphisms show a much more recent coalescence within Sumatra compared with Borneo. Moreover, the deep geographic structure evident in mtDNA is not reflected in the male population history, strongly suggesting male-biased dispersal. We conclude that volcanic activities have played an important role in the evolutionary history of orangutans and potentially of many other forest-dwelling Sundaland species. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a strong sex bias in dispersal can lead to conflicting patterns in uniparentally inherited markers even at a genus-wide scale, highlighting the need for a combined usage of maternally and paternally inherited marker systems in phylogenetic studies.

Although the pedigree-based inbreeding coefficient F predicts the expected proportion of an individual's genome that is identical-by-descent (IBD), heterozygosity at genetic markers captures Mendelian sampling variation and thereby provides an estimate of realized IBD. Realized IBD should hence explain more variation in fitness than their pedigree-based expectations, but how many markers are required to achieve this in practice remains poorly understood. We use extensive pedigree and life-history data from an island population of song sparrows ( Melospiza melodia ) to show that the number of genetic markers and pedigree depth affected the explanatory power of heterozygosity and F , respectively, but that heterozygosity measured at 160 microsatellites did not explain more variation in fitness than F . This is in contrast with other studies that found heterozygosity based on far fewer markers to explain more variation in fitness than F . Thus, the relative performance of marker- and pedigree-based estimates of IBD depends on the quality of the pedigree, the number, variability and location of the markers employed, and the species-specific recombination landscape, and expectations based on detailed and deep pedigrees remain valuable until we can routinely afford genotyping hundreds of phenotyped wild individuals of genetic non-model species for thousands of genetic markers.

The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.

Appropriately defining and enumerating “fitness” is fundamental to explaining and predicting evolutionary dynamics. Yet, general theoretical concepts of fitness are often hard to translate into quantities that can be measured in wild populations experiencing complex environmental, demographic, genetic, and selective variation. Although the “fittest” entities might be widely understood to be those that ultimately leave most descendants at some future time, such long‐term legacies can rarely be measured, impeding evaluation of the degree to which tractable short‐term metrics of individual fitness could potentially serve as useful direct proxies. One opportunity for conceptual and empirical convergence stems from the principle of individual reproductive value ( V i ), here defined as the number of copies of each of an individual's alleles that is expected to be present in future generations given the individual's realized pedigree of descendants. As V i tightly predicts an individual's longer term genetic contribution, quantifying V i provides a tractable route to quantifying what, to date, has been an abstract theoretical fitness concept. We used complete pedigree data from free‐living song sparrows ( Melospiza melodia ) to demonstrate that individuals’ expected genetic contributions stabilize within an observed 20‐year (i.e. approximately eight generation) time period, allowing estimation of individual V i . Considerable among‐individual variation in V i was evident in both sexes. Standard metrics of individual lifetime fitness, comprising lifespan, lifetime reproductive success, and projected growth rate, typically explained less than half the variation. We thereby elucidate the degree to which fitness metrics observed on individuals concur with measures of longer term genetic contributions and consider the degree to which analyses of pedigree structure could provide useful complementary insights into evolutionary outcomes.

Quantifying sex-specific additive genetic variance (V A ) in fitness, and the cross-sex genetic correlation (r A ), is pre-requisite to predicting evolutionary dynamics and the magnitude of sexual conflict. Quantifying V A and r A in underlying fitness components, and multiple genetic consequences of immigration and resulting gene flow, is required to identify mechanisms that maintain V A in fitness. However, these key parameters have rarely been estimated in wild populations experiencing natural environmental variation and immigration. We used comprehensive pedigree and life-history data from song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to estimate V A and r A in sexspecific fitness and underlying fitness components, and to estimate additive genetic effects of immigrants as well as inbreeding depression. We found substantial V A in female and male fitness, with a moderate positive cross-sex r A . There was also substantial V A in adult reproductive success in males but not females, and moderate V A in juvenile survival but not adult survival. Immigrants introduced alleles for which additive genetic effects on local fitness were negative, potentially reducing population mean fitness through migration load, yet alleviating expression of inbreeding depression. Substantial V A for fitness can consequently be maintained in the wild, and be concordant between the sexes despite marked sex-specific V A in reproductive success.