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Purpose: FDG-PET adds to clinical factors, such tumor stage and p16 status, in predicting local (LF), regional (RF), and distant failure (DF) in poor prognosis locally advanced head and neck cancer (HNC) treated with chemoradiation. We hypothesized that MRI-based quantitative imaging (QI) metrics could add to clinical predictors of treatment failure more significantly than FDG-PET metrics.Materials and methods: Fifty four patients with poor prognosis HNCs who were enrolled in an IRB approved prospective adaptive chemoradiotherapy trial were analyzed. MRI-derived gross tumor volume (GTV), blood volume (BV), and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) pre-treatment and mid-treatment (fraction 10), as well as pre-treatment FDG PET metrics, were analyzed in primary and individual nodal tumors. Cox proportional hazards models for prediction of LRF and DF free survival were used to test the additional value of QI metrics over dominant clinical predictors.Results: The mean ADC pre-RT and its change rate mid-treatment were significantly higher and lower in p16– than p16+ primary tumors, respectively. A Cox model identified that high mean ADC pre-RT had a high hazard for LF and RF in p16– but not p16+ tumors (p = 0.015). Most interesting, persisting subvolumes of low BV (TVbv) in primary and nodal tumors mid-treatment had high-risk for DF (p < 0.05). Also, total nodal GTV mid-treatment, mean/max SUV of FDG in all nodal tumors, and total nodal TLG were predictive for DF (p < 0.05). When including clinical stage (T4/N3) and total nodal GTV in the model, all nodal PET parameters had a p-value of >0.3, and only TVbv of primary tumors had a p-value of 0.06.Conclusion: MRI-defined biomarkers, especially persisting subvolumes of low BV, add predictive value to clinical variables and compare favorably with FDG-PET imaging markers. MRI could be well-integrated into the radiation therapy workflow for treatment planning, response assessment, and adaptive therapy.

In many settings, including oncology, increasing the dose of treatment results in both increased efficacy and toxicity. With the increasing availability of validated biomarkers and prediction models, there is the potential for individualized dosing based on patient specific factors. We consider the setting where there is an existing dataset of patients treated with heterogenous doses and including binary efficacy and toxicity outcomes and patient factors such as clinical features and biomarkers. The goal is to analyze the data to estimate an optimal dose for each (future) patient based on their clinical features and biomarkers. We propose an optimal individualized dose finding rule by maximizing utility functions for individual patients while limiting the rate of toxicity. The utility is defined as a weighted combination of efficacy and toxicity probabilities. This approach maximizes overall efficacy at a prespecified constraint on overall toxicity. We model the binary efficacy and toxicity outcomes using logistic regression with dose, biomarkers and dose–biomarker interactions. To incorporate the large number of potential parameters, we use the LASSO method. We additionally constrain the dose effect to be non‐negative for both efficacy and toxicity for all patients. Simulation studies show that the utility approach combined with any of the modeling methods can improve efficacy without increasing toxicity relative to fixed dosing. The proposed methods are illustrated using a dataset of patients with lung cancer treated with radiation therapy.

To evaluate whether response assessment of newly diagnosed glioblastoma at 3 months using 11 C-methionine-positron emission tomography (MET-PET) is better associated with patient outcome compared with baseline MET-PET or anatomic magnetic resonance imaging alone. Methods and Materials: Patients included were participants in a phase I/II trial of dose-escalated chemoradiation based on anatomic magnetic resonance imaging. Automated segmentation of metabolic tumor volume (MTV) was performed at a threshold of 1.5 times mean cerebellar uptake. Progression-free (PFS) and overall survival were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with log-rank tests. Multivariate analysis for PFS and overall survival was performed using Cox proportional hazards, and spatial overlap between imaging and recurrence volumes were analyzed. Results: Among 37 patients, 15 had gross total resection, of whom 10 (67%) had residual MTV, 16 subtotal resection, and 6 biopsy alone. Median radiation therapy dose was 75 Gy (range, 66-81). Median baseline T1 Gd-enhanced tumor volume (GTV-Gd) was 38.0 cm 3 (range, 8.0-81.5). Median pre-CRT MTV was 4.9 cm 3 (range, 0-43.8). Among 25 patients with 3-month MET-PET, MTV was only 2.4 cm 3 (range, 0.004-18.0) in patients with uptake. Patients with MTV Z 0 cm 3 at 3 months had superior PFS (18.2 vs 10.1 months,

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