This paper considers the feasibility of numerical simulation of large-scale atmospheric transport of allergenic pollen. It is shown that at least small grains, such as birch pollen, can stay in the air for a few days, which leads to a characteristic scale for their transport of approximately 10(3) km. The analytical consideration confirmed the applicability of existing dispersion models to the pollen transport task and provided some reference parameterizations of the key processes, including dry and wet deposition. The results were applied to the Finnish Emergency Dispersion Modelling System (SILAM), which was then used to analyze pollen transport to Finland during spring time in 2002-2004. Solutions of the inverse problems (source apportionment) showed that the main source areas, from which the birch flowering can affect Finnish territory, are the Baltic States, Russia, Germany, Poland, and Sweden-depending on the particular meteorological situation. Actual forecasting of pollen dispersion required a birch forest map of Europe and a unified European model for birch flowering, both of which were nonexistent before this study. A map was compiled from the national forest inventories of Western Europe and satellite images of broadleaf forests. The flowering model was based on the mean climatological dates for the onset of birch forests rather than conditions of any specific year. Utilization of probability forecasting somewhat alleviated the problem, but the development of a European-wide flowering model remains the main obstacle for real-time forecasting of large-scale pollen distribution.

A birch pollen emission model is described and its main features are discussed. The development of the model is based on a double-threshold temperature sum model that describes the propagation of the flowering season and naturally links to the thermal time models to predict the onset and duration of flowering. For the flowering season, the emission model considers ambient humidity and precipitation rate, both of which suppress the pollen release, as well as wind speed and turbulence intensity, which promote it. These dependencies are qualitatively evaluated using the aerobiological observations. Reflecting the probabilistic character of the flowering of an individual tree in a population, the model introduces relaxation functions at the start and end of the season. The physical basis of the suggested birch pollen emission model is compared with another comprehensive emission module reported in literature. The emission model has been implemented in the SILAM dispersion modelling system, the results of which are evaluated in a companion paper.

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The paper presents an assessment of birch pollen seasons in Finland and Russia. The re-analysis covered the period from 1994 to 2005 and was focused on suspected long-range transport events that were recorded both in Moscow and at several Finnish sites. In order to trace the origin of airborne pollen before the onset of local pollination, we used both aerobiological and phenological observations combined with forward and adjoint (inverse) dispersion model simulations. It is shown that, although the Moscow region is surrounded by extensive birch forests, it still receives substantial amounts of foreign pollen before local pollination. In the Moscow region, the sources of long-range-transported pollen are in the south and south-west, sometimes even in the east. In Finland, there are frequently cases, before the local flowering season, in which Finnish territory receives Russian pollen; however in the opposite direction, from Finland to the Moscow region, no transport episodes were unequivocally registered. Analysis of the end of the seasons was more problematic, due to contributions to pollen observations from local sources; this results in difficulties in the reliable identification of the long-range transport episodes. Apart from its short-term effects on the pollen seasons, long-range transport can have substantial impacts on the exchange of genetic material within Europe. A quick atmospheric pathway for gene transport can be important for adaptation of plants to a changing climate.

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