The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
Policy ReseaRch WoRking PaPeR 4699New Zealand's new Recognized Seasonal Employer program allows workers from the Pacific Islands to come to New Zealand for up to seven months to work in the horticulture and viticulture industries. One of the explicit objectives of the program is to encourage economic development in the Pacific. This paper reports the results of a baseline survey taken in Vanuatu, which the authors use to examine who wants to participate in the program, and who is selected among those interested. The findings show that the main participants are males in their late 20s to early 40s, and most are married and have children.
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ResumenPese al respaldo empírico con el que ha contado la teoría de la restricción externa desarrollada a partir del modelo de Thirlwall, éste muestra algunas deficiencias destacadas en la literatura. En nuestra opinión, dos de ellas merecen ser analizadas. Por un lado, la necesidad de incorporar desequilibrios transitorios de la balanza de pagos y los consiguientes flujos de capital. Por otro, creemos los precios relativos pueden desempeñar un papel importante en el comercio exterior, sin que ello invalide la existencia de una restricción externa. El objetivo del presente trabajo consiste en desarrollar un modelo que incorpore ambas cuestiones, permitiendo, así, un mayor protagonismo a los precios relativos y a los desequilibrios temporales de la balanza de pagos. Este modelo se emplea posteriormente para analizar la evolución de las economías española y portuguesa en las últimas décadas y, en especial, las diferencias mostradas desde su incorporación a la Eurozona.Palabras clave: Crecimiento, restricción externa, tipo de cambio.
AbstractBroadly speaking, the balance-of-payments constraint hypothesis as developed by Thirlwall has been empirically supported. Yet, it shows some shortcomings highlighted in the literature. In our opinion, two of them must be analysed. First, temporary disequilibria and capital flows must be incorporated into the balance-of-payments constrained growth models. Second, the role of relative prices must be made explicit, since it can be relevant even in an external constraint framework. This study is aimed at developing a model that incorporates both possibilities: temporary external disequilibria and a the impact of relative prices. This model is subsequently used to analyse the evolution of the Spanish and Portuguese economies in last decades, and, in particular, the different path shown by both countries since their accession to the Eurozone.
Several characteristics of the structure of the Arab economies, their economic policy framework, and their banking systems make macroprudential policy a particular relevant tool. For most oil exporters, heavy reliance on the extractive sector for generating fiscal revenues and export earnings translates into increased vulnerabilities to oil price shocks. In the case of oil importers, relatively small external and fiscal buffers make them highly vulnerable to shocks. This paper discusses the experience of Arab countries in implementing macroprudential policies and contains recommendations to strengthen their macroprudential framework.
JEL Classification Numbers: G28, E58
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