Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage 1 than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects 2 . Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave 3 , but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain 4,5 . Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (6100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT 54.185310 12 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique 4-6 of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations 7 based on the effects of nuclear weapons-almost always used with this technique-overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates 5,6 near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques 8,9 . This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes. for the Chelyabinsk airburst, based on indirect illumination measured from video records. The brightness is an average derived from indirect scattered sky brightness from six videos proximal to the airburst, corrected for the sensor gamma setting, autogain, range and airmass extinction, following the procedure used for other airburst light curves generated from video 24,25 . The light curve has been normalized using the US government sensor data peak brightness value of 2.7 3 10 13 W sr 21, corresponding to an absolute astronomical magnitude of 228 in the silicon bandpass. The individual video light curves deviate by less than one magnitude between times 22 and 11.5 with larger deviations outside this interval. Time zero corresponds to 03:20:32.2 UTC on 15 February 2013. b, The energy deposition per unit height for the Chelyabinsk airburst, based on video data. The conversion to absolute energy deposition per unit path length assumes a blackbody emission of 6,000 K and bolometric efficiency of 17%, the same as the assumptions used to convert earlier US government sensor information to energy 26 . The heights are computed us...

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model-Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral domains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15-20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

This paper reviews recent progress toward understanding the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the framework of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) initiative. The middle atmosphere, integrating the stratosphere and mesosphere, is a crucial region which influences tropospheric weather and climate. Enhancing the understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics requires improved measurement of the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves originating in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Inter-comparison studies have shown large discrepancies between observations and models, especially during unresolved disturbances such as sudden stratospheric warmings for which model accuracy is poorer due to a lack of observational constraints. Correctly predicting the variability of the middle atmosphere can lead to improvements in tropospheric weather forecasts on timescales of weeks to season. The ARISE project integrates different station networks providing observations from ground to the lower thermosphere, including the infrasound system developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification, the Lidar Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change, complementary meteor radars, wind radiometers, ionospheric sounders and satellites. This paper presents several examples which show how multi-instrument observations can provide a better description of the vertical dynamics structure of the middle atmosphere, especially during large disturbances such as gravity waves activity and stratospheric warming events. The paper then demonstrates the interest of ARISE data in data assimilation for weather forecasting and re-analyzes the determination of dynamics evolution with climate change and the monitoring of atmospheric extreme events which have an atmospheric signature, such as thunderstorms or volcanic eruptions.

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A method is presented to study the life cycle of a SSW using infrasonic ambient noise observations. The potential of infrasound is shown to provide the missing observations required by numerical weather prediction to better resolve the upper atmosphere. The 2009 major SSW is reanalyzed using the Evers and Siegmund (2009) data set. Microbarom observations are evaluated to identify detections that cannot be explained by the analysis of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. Identified differences can be related to either the altitude limit of the analysis, not resolving thermospheric ducts, or to an actual error in the analysis. Therefore, a first‐order model is used to relate observations with the analysis, existing of the Waxler et al. (2007) microbarom source model, including bathymetry to allow column resonances, and an atmospheric propagation model using 3‐D ray tracing. Daily normalized spectral powers are proposed to distinguish stratospheric from thermospheric return height, based on the different signature of solar tidal amplitude fluctuations. It is shown that a SSW is not a smooth event as following from the analysis but a series of abrupt changes with a period of 10 to 16 days, increasing in intensity and duration. This is in agreement with the wave period of Rossby waves, interacting with the stratospheric circumpolar vortex. The type of vortex disturbance, split or reversal, can be deduced from the combined effect of the change in back‐azimuth direction, solar tidal signature type, and/or phase variation of the amplitude variation of the observed microbaroms.

In January 2011, the state of the polar vortex in the midlatitudes changed significantly due to a minor sudden stratospheric warming event. As a result, a bidirectional duct for infrasound propagation developed in the middle atmosphere that persisted for 2 weeks. The ducts were due to two zonal wind jets, one between 30 and 50 km and the other around 70 km altitude. In this paper, using microbarom source modeling, a previously unidentified source region in the eastern Mediterranean is identified, besides the more well known microbarom source regions in the Atlantic Ocean. Infrasound data are then presented in which the above mentioned bidirectional duct is observed in microbarom signals recorded at the International Monitoring System station I48TN in Tunisia, from the Mediterranean region to the east and from the Atlantic Ocean to the west. While the frequency bands of the two sources overlap, the Mediterranean signal is coherent up to about 0.6 Hz. This observation is consistent with the microbarom source modeling; the discrepancy in the frequency band is related to differences in the ocean wave spectra for the two basins considered. This work demonstrates the sensitivity of infrasound to stratospheric dynamics and illustrates that the classic paradigm of a unidirectional stratospheric duct for infrasound propagation can be broken during a sudden stratospheric warming event.

In this study we analyze infrasound signals from three earthquakes in central Italy. The Mw 6.0 Amatrice, Mw 5.9 Visso, and Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquakes generated significant epicentral ground motions that couple to the atmosphere and produce infrasonic waves. Epicentral seismic and infrasonic signals are detected at I26DE; however, a third type of signal, which arrives after the seismic wave train and before the epicentral infrasound signal, is also detected. This peculiar signal propagates across the array at acoustic wave speeds, but the celerity associated with it is 3 times the speed of sound. Atmosphere‐independent backprojections and full 3‐D ray tracing using atmospheric conditions of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts are used to demonstrate that this apparently fast‐arriving infrasound signal originates from ground motions more than 400 km away from the epicenter. The location of the secondary infrasound patch coincides with the closest bounce point to I26DE as depicted by ray tracing backprojections.

The underground nuclear tests by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) generated atmospheric infrasound both in 2013 and 2016. Clear detections were made in the Russian Federation (I45RU) and Japan (I30JP) in 2013 at stations from the International Monitoring System. Both tropospheric and stratospheric refractions arrived at the stations. In 2016, only a weak return was potentially observed at I45RU. Data analysis and propagation modeling show that the noise level at the stations and the stratospheric circumpolar vortex were different in 2016 compared to 2013. As the seismic magnitude of the 2013 and 2016 nuclear test explosions was comparable, we hypothesize that the 2016 test occurred at least 1.5 times deeper. In such a case, less seismic energy would couple through the lithosphere‐atmosphere interface, leading to less observable infrasound. Since explosion depth is difficult to estimate from seismic data alone, this motivates a synergy between seismics and infrasonics.