[1] Two end-member kinematic models of crustal shortening across the Himalaya are currently debated: one assumes localized thrusting along a single major thrust fault, the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) with nonuniform underplating due to duplexing, and the other advocates for out-of-sequence (OOS) thrusting in addition to thrusting along the MHT and underplating. We assess these two models based on the modeling of thermochronological, thermometric, and thermobarometric data from the central Nepal Himalaya. We complement a data set compiled from the literature with 114 40 Ar/ 39 Ar, 10 apatite fission track, and 5 zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronological data. The data are predicted using a thermokinematic model (PECUBE), and the model parameters are constrained using an inverse approach based on the Neighborhood Algorithm. The model parameters include geometric characteristics as well as overthrusting rates, radiogenic heat production in the High Himalayan Crystalline (HHC) sequence, the age of initiation of the duplex or of out-of-sequence thrusting. Both models can provide a satisfactory fit to the inverted data. However, the model with out-of-sequence thrusting implies an unrealistic convergence rate ≥30 mm yr −1 . The out-of-sequence thrust model can be adjusted to fit the convergence rate and the thermochronological data if the Main Central Thrust zone is assigned a constant geometry and a dip angle of about 30°and a slip rate of <1 mm yr −1 . In the duplex model, the 20 mm yr −1 convergence rate is partitioned between an overthrusting rate of 5.8 ± 1.4 mm yr −1 and an underthrusting rate of 14.2 ± 1.8 mm yr −1. Modern rock uplift rates are estimated to increase from about 0.9 ± 0.31 mm yr −1 in the Lesser Himalaya to 3.0 ± 0.9 mm yr −1 at the front of the high range, 86 ± 13 km from the Main Frontal Thrust. The effective friction coefficient is estimated to be 0.07 or smaller, and the radiogenic heat production of HHC units is estimated to be 2.2 ± 0.1 mW m −3. The midcrustal duplex initiated at 9.8 ± 1.7 Ma, leading to an increase of uplift rate at front of the High Himalaya from 0.9 ± 0.31 to 3.05 ± 0.9 mm yr −1 . We also run 3-D models by coupling PECUBE with a landscape evolution model (CASCADE). This modeling shows that the effect of the evolving topography can explain a fraction of the scatter observed in the data but not all of it, suggesting that lateral variations of the kinematics of crustal deformation and exhumation are likely. It has been argued that the steep physiographic transition at the foot of the Greater Himalayan Sequence indicates OOS thrusting, but our results demonstrate that the best fit duplex model derived from the thermochronological and thermobarometric data reproduces the present morphology of the Nepal Himalaya equally well.

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Understanding of the evolution of fluid-fault interactions during earthquake cycles is a challenge that acoustic gas emission studies can contribute. A survey of the Sea of Marmara using a shipborne, multibeam echo sounder, with water column records, provided an accurate spatial distribution of offshore seeps. Gas emissions are spatially controlled by a combination of factors, including fault and fracture networks in connection to the Main Marmara Fault system and inherited faults, the nature and thickness of sediments (e.g., occurrence of impermeable or gas-bearing sediments and landslides), and the connectivity between the seafloor and gas sources, particularly in relation to the Eocene Thrace Basin. The relationship between seepage and fault activity is not linear, as active faults do not necessarily conduct gas, and scarps corresponding to deactivated fault strands may continue to channel fluids. Within sedimentary basins, gas is not expelled at the seafloor unless faulting, deformation, or erosional processes affect the sediments. On topographic highs, gas flares occur along the main fault scarps but are also associated with sediment deformation. The occurrence of gas emissions appears to be correlated with the distribution of microseismicity. The relative absence of earthquake-induced ground shaking along parts of the Istanbul-Silivri and Princes Islands segments is likely the primary factor responsible for the comparative lack of gas emissions along these fault segments. The spatiotemporal distribution of gas seeps may thus provide a complementary way to constrain earthquake geohazards by focusing the study on some key fault segments, e.g., the northern part of the locked Princes Islands segment.

The submerged section of the North Anatolian fault within the Marmara Sea was investigated using acoustic techniques and submersible dives. Most gas emissions in the water column were found near the surface expression of known active faults. Gas emissions are unevenly distributed. The linear fault segment crossing the Central High and forming a seismic gap-as it has not ruptured since 1766, based on historical seismicity, exhibits relatively less gas emissions than the adjacent segments. In the eastern Sea of Marmara, active gas emissions are also found above a buried transtensional fault zone, which displayed micro-seismic activity after the 1999 events. Remarkably, this zone of gas emission extends westward all along the southern edge of Cinarcik basin, well beyond the zone where 1999 aftershocks were observed. The long term monitoring of gas seeps could hence be highly valuable for the understanding of the evolution of the fluid-fault coupling processes during the earthquake cycle within the Marmara Sea.

[1] In this study, we used porosity to assess the compaction state of the Nankai accretionary wedge sediments and any implications for stress and pore pressure. However, hydrous minerals affect porosity measurements, and accounting for them is essential toward defining the interstitial porosity truly representative of the compaction state. The water content of sediments was measured in core samples and estimated from logging data using a resistivity model for shale. We used the cation exchange capacity to correct the porosity data for the amount of water bound to clay minerals and to correct the porosity estimates for the surface conductivity of hydrous minerals. The results indicate that several apparent porosity anomalies are significantly reduced by this correction, implying that they are in part artifacts from hydrous minerals. The correction also improves the fit of porosity estimated from logging-while-drilling (LWD) resistivity data to porosity measured on cores. Low overall porosities at the toe of the accretionary wedge and in the splay fault area are best explained by erosion, and we estimated the quantity of sediments eroded within the splay fault area by comparing porosity-effective stress relationships of the sediments to a reference curve. Additionally, a comparison of LWD data with core data (resistivity and P wave velocity) obtained at Site C0001 landward of the mega-splay fault area, suggested a contribution from the fracture porosity to in situ properties on the formation.

[1] A current view is that the portion of the subduction interface that remains locked in the time interval between large interplate earthquakes, hereinafter referred to as the locked fault zone (LFZ), does not extend into the mantle because serpentinization of the mantle wedge would favor stable aseismic sliding. Here, we test this view in the case of the Sumatra subduction zone where the downdip end of the LFZ can be well constrained from the pattern and rate of uplift deduced from coral growth and from GPS measurements of horizontal deformation. These geodetic data are modeled from a creeping dislocation embedded in an elastic half-space and indicate that the LFZ extends 132 ± 10/7 km from the trench, to a depth between 35 and 57 km. By combining this information with the geometry of the plate interface as constrained from two-dimensional gravimetric modeling and seismicity, we show that the LFZ extends below the forearc Moho, which is estimated to lie at a depth of $30 km, at a horizontal distance of 110 km from the trench. So, in this particular island arc setting, the LFZ most probably extends into the mantle, implying that either the mantle is not serpentinized, or that the presence of serpentine does not necessarily imply stable sliding. From thermal modeling, the temperature at the downdip end of the LFZ is estimated to be 260 ± 100°C. This temperature seems too low for thermally activated ductile flow, so that aseismic slip is most probably due to pressure and/ or temperature induced steady state brittle sliding, possibly favored by fluids released from the subducting slab.

No abstract

Key questions in fault reactivation in shales relate to the potential for enhanced fluid transport through previously low‐permeability aseismic formations. Here we explore the behavior of a 20 m long N0‐to‐170°, 75‐to‐80°W fault in shales that is critically stressed under a strike‐slip regime (σ1 = 4 ± 2 MPa, horizontal and N162° ± 15°E, σ2 = 3.8 ± 0.4 MPa and σ3 = 2.1 ± 1 MPa, respectively 7–8° inclined from vertical and horizontal and N72°). The fault was reactivated by fluid pressurization in a borehole using a straddle packer system isolating a 2.4 m long injection chamber oriented‐subnormal to the fault surface at a depth of 250 m. A three‐dimensional displacement sensor attached across the fault allowed monitoring fault movements, injection pressure and flow rate. Pressurization induced a hydraulic diffusivity increase from ~2 × 10−9 to ~103 m2 s−1 associated with a complex three‐dimensional fault movement. The shear (x‐, z‐) and fault‐normal (y‐) components (Ux, Uy, and Uz) =  (44.0 × 10−6 m, 10.5 × 10−6 m, and 20.0 × 10−6 m) are characterized by much larger shear displacements than the normal opening. Numerical analyses of the experiment show that the fault permeability evolution is controlled by the fault reactivation in shear related to Coulomb failure. The large additional fault hydraulic aperture for fluid flow is not reflected in the total normal displacement that showed a small partly contractile component. This suggests that complex dilatant effects estimated to occur in a plurimeter radius around the injection source affect the flow and slipping patch geometries during fault rupture, controlling the initial slow slip and the strong back slip of the fault following depressurization.