International audienceThe prediction of landslide movement acceleration is a complex problem, among others identified for deep-seated landslides, and represents a crucial step for risk assessment. Within the scope of this problem, the objective of this paper is to explore a modelling method that enables the study of landslide function and facilitates displacement predictions based on a limited data set. An inverse modelling approach is proposed for predicting the temporal evolution of landslide movement based on rainfall and displacement velocities. Initially, the hydrogeology of the studied landslides was conceptualised based on correlative analyses. Subsequently, we applied an inverse model with a Gaussian-exponential transfer function to reproduce the displacements. This method was tested on the Grand Ilet (GI) and Mare-à-Poule-d'Eau (HB) landslides on Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean. We show that the behaviour of landslides can be modelled by inverse models with a bimodal transfer function using a Gaussian-exponential impulse response. The cumulative displacements over 7 years of modelling (2 years of calibration period for GI, and 4 years for HB) were reproduced with an RMSE above 0.9. The characteristics of the bimodal transfer function are directly related to the hydrogeological functioning demonstrated by the correlative analyses: the rapid reaction of a landslide can be associated with the effect of a preferential flow path on groundwater level variations. Thus, this study shows that the inverse model using a Gaussian-exponential transfer function is a powerful tool for predicting deep-seated landslide movements and for studying how they function. Beyond modelling displacements, our approach effectively demonstrates its ability to contribute relevant data for conceptualising the sliding mechanisms and hydrogeology of landslides
This research aims to quantify the geophysical signature of the laminated layer, one of the main layers constituting the weathering profile of hard rocks. This laminated layer acts as a marker for locating the underlying groundwater productive stratiform fractured layer (SFL). The study is based at two sites on the interpretation of 50 km of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles, compared with outcrops and boreholes by geophysical modelling. For the first time, the geophysical signature of the laminated layer, located at the base of the saprolite, is characterized within granite formations. Where the stratiform weathered layer is detected by pole-dipole ERT profiles, the laminated layer is identified as a resistant layer on 90% of the SFL length using an appropriate inversion method. In addition, this layer is also revealed for the first time in certain types of metamorphic formations; here it is revealed in micaschists (62% of the SFL length). The location of the laminated layer in the weathering profile is important (1) for water well siting by determining if an underlying SFL exists in the weathering profile and (2) for assessing the residual thickness of the saprolite, and then evaluating water storage and the protection of the SFL aquifer.
Among the processes controlling landslide dynamics, piezometry plays a major role. The characterization of a landslide’s aquifer recharge (=inflows) is thus indispensable for predicting displacements. In this research, the recharge of the large Grand Ilet landslide in the humid tropical, Reunion Island was characterized through a multi-disciplinary and robust hydrological approach, notably comprising a precise water budget of the landslide (outflows = inflows). Surface processes play a major role in the landslide recharge regime. Runoff is less than 1% of rainfall (2400 mm/year) due to the soil’s high permeability. A large quantity of water (250 mm) is adsorbed in this shallow layer. This reservoir is submitted to high real evapotranspiration (1500 mm/year) due to the dense tropical broad-leaved vegetation. This explains the low aquifer recharge (860 mm/year), the fact that only major rainfall episodes during the rainy season induce recharge, with a consequent increase in landslide velocity, and finally low outflow from the landslide. Therefore, among other operational recommendations, it is necessary to maintain natural vegetation cover over such landslide surface in order to limit aquifer recharge and thus displacements. This study provides a methodological framework for landslide studies, particularly for modeling their recharge/piezometry, and key parameters of their dynamics.
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