a b s t r a c tReal-data testing results of a real-time nonlinear freeway traffic state estimator are presented with a particular focus on its adaptive features. The pursued general approach to the real-time adaptive estimation of complete traffic state in freeway stretches or networks is based on stochastic nonlinear macroscopic traffic flow modeling and extended Kalman filtering. One major innovative aspect of the estimator is the real-time joint estimation of traffic flow variables (flows, mean speeds, and densities) and some important model parameters (free speed, critical density, and capacity), which leads to four significant features of the traffic state estimator: (i) avoidance of prior model calibration; (ii) automatic adaptation to changing external conditions (e.g. weather and lighting conditions, traffic composition, control measures); (iii) enabling of incident alarms; (iv) enabling of detector fault alarms. The purpose of the reported real-data testing is, first, to demonstrate feature (i) by investigating some basic properties of the estimator and, second, to explore some adaptive capabilities of the estimator that enable features (ii)-(iv). The achieved testing results are quite satisfactory and promising for further work and field applications.
a b s t r a c tThis article presents hedonic Multiple Linear Regression models (MLR), spatial autoregressive hedonic models (SAR), Spatial autoregressive hedonic in the Error term Models (SEMs) and spatial Durbin hedonic models (SDMs) to estimate house price variations in metropolitan areas as a result of changing environmental and accessibility conditions. The goodness of fit of the different models has been compared along with a series of hypotheses about the performance of the specifications considering spatial relationships between observations. The case study for such analysis was the urban area of Santander (Spain). The models which considered spatial dependence between observations offered a greater degree of fit in a scenario showing strong spatial correlation in MLR residuals. The SEM model combined with a QueenContiguity matrix provided a good fit to the data and at the same time presented significant parameters with theoretically coherent signs. This model estimated increases of 1.8% for each additional transit line present in the areas of housing, as well as a reduction of 1.1% in their prices for each additional minute in travelling time to the Central Business District. Closeness to the train stations, however, implied reductions in house prices.
The influence of accessibility to opportunities in trip generation continues to be debated in the specialised literature given its relevance to simulate phenomena such as induced demand. This article estimates multiple linear regression models (MLR), spatial autoregressive models (SAR), spatial autoregressive models in the error term (SEM) and spatially filtered Poisson regression models (SPO) to discover whether or not accessibility is a significant factor in trip generation using data from the urban area of Santander (Spain). The results obtained provide evidence which shows that, on an intraurban scale, more accessibility to opportunities decreases trip production in private vehicle for work purpose, whereas it increases trip production in other transport modes for non—mandatory purposes. For the correct interpretation of the estimated parameters it was important to consider the direct and indirect effects of the independent variables in the SAR production models. Finally, the validation of the models showed that the SAR and SEM models had a mean squared error slightly lower than the MLR models in predicting overall trip production. This was because the spatial models reduced the correlation of the residuals present in the MLR models. Furthermore, the SPO models performed better in validation mode than all the continuous model
Abstract-This paper reports on some large-scale field-testing results of a real-time freeway network traffic surveillance tool that has recently been developed to enable a number of real-time traffic surveillance tasks. This paper first introduces the related network traffic flow model and the approaches employed to traffic state estimation, traffic state prediction, and incident alarm. The field testing of the tool for these surveillance tasks in the A3 freeway of 100 km between Naples and Salerno in southern Italy is then reported in some detail. The results obtained are quite satisfactory and promising for further future implementations of the tool.
a b s t r a c tThe use of Multinomial Logit (MNL) models specification for the simulation of residential location have been often criticised due to the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives hypothesis (IIA) which does not allow for the existence of spatial correlation between residential zones. Moreover, it is not clear when and to what extent the influence of the workplace zone and accessibility to employment affect the residential location choices made by households; in other word, whether the residing choice is conditional to the workplace, or vice versa; or if such choices (residence and work place) are joint.In this paper, Nested Logit (NL) and Cross-Nested Logit models of residential location choice are specified and compared to MNL, to investigate the existence of spatial correlation between different locations. Furthermore, different assumptions are tested, considering the choice of residential zone and the joint choice of residential zone and work place zone.The models were estimated for the urban area of Santander (Spain). The results indicate that the inclusion in the model specification, of the spatial correlation between zones fit the data significantly better. Home-work journey times were a statistically significant factor in household location choice, whereas accessibility to employment had the correct sign but it was not statistically significant.
Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that greater accessibility to opportunities can have a positive impact on real estate values. However, this capitalisation of the benefits of accessibility could vary between different study areas. This research estimates hedonic and spatial hedonic models in two urban areas to compare if differences can be found in the impact accessibility using public transport has on residential property values. The two study areas chosen for comparison are a medium sized city without any major mobility problems (Santander, Spain) and a very large city with major congestion problems (Rome, Italy). The estimated hedonic models have considered the possible presence of spatial effects, a common occurrence with real estate data which may generate dependency in the residuals of hedonic models. Accessibility has been measured using two types of indicators: relative and gravity based. The results confirm that accessibility was a positive factor on property prices in both cities, although in Santander this was only true using the relative indicator to the city centre. These results are relevant for supporting the introduction of value capture policies which provide finance for new projects to extend and encourage greater use of public transport.
Introduction The COVID-19 emergency and the cities lockdown have had a strong impact on transport and mobility. In particular, travel demand has registered an unprecedented overall contraction, dramatically dropping down with peaks of - 90%-95% passengers for public transport (PT). During the re-opening phase, demand is gradually resuming the levels before the crisis, although some structural changes are observed in travel behaviour, and containment measures to reduce the risk of contagion are still being applied, affecting transport supply. Objective This paper aims at assessing to what extent keeping a one-meter interpersonal distancing on-board trains is sustainable for public transport companies. Method The analysis is based on travel demand forecasting models applied to two case-studies in Italy: a suburban railway line and a High-speed Rail (HSR) line, differentiated by demand characteristics (e.g. urban vs. ex-urban) and train access system (free access vs. reservation required). Results In the suburban case, the results show the need of new urban policies, not only limited to the transport domain, in order to manage the demand peaks at the stations and on-board vehicles. In the ex-urban case, the outputs suggest the need for public subsidies in order for the railways undertakings to cope with revenue losses and, at the same time, to maintain service quality levels.
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