An effective collocation method based on Genocchi operational matrix for solving generalized fractional pantograph equations with initial and boundary conditions is presented. Using the properties of Genocchi polynomials, we derive a new Genocchi delay operational matrix which we used together with the Genocchi operational matrix of fractional derivative to approach the problems. The error upper bound for the Genocchi operational matrix of fractional derivative is also shown. Collocation method based on these operational matrices is applied to reduce the generalized fractional pantograph equations to a system of algebraic equations. The comparison of the numerical results with some existing methods shows that the present method is an excellent mathematical tool for finding the numerical solutions of generalized fractional pantograph equations.

There is a growing concern over the ongoing rabies epidemic in Sarawak that has remain unresolved ever since the outbreak began in July 2017. As of today, there has been 18 positive human rabies cases reported, which includes 17 fatalities, and one survivor who is now on life support after a severe neurological complications. Subsequently, the death rate now stands at approximately 94%. This paper is a preliminary report on the simulation of rabies transmission dynamics in Sarawak. At present, research is still lacking on the disease dynamics of rabies in Malaysia particularly in the state of Sarawak. We propose here a deterministic, compartmental model with SEIRS framework to fit actual data on the number of human infected rabies cases in Sarawak from June 2017 to January 2019. The simulation predicts that rabies in Sarawak will persist even with the current outbreak management and control efforts. Further, sensitivity analysis showed that dog vaccination rate is the most influential parameter and the basic reproduction number is estimated to be higher than 1. Henceforth, there is a need to increase the access to dog vaccines especially in remote rural areas with lack of health facilities. Our findings also suggest that controlling dog births could prevent the spread of rabies from perpetuating in the state. Neutering or using other fertility control methods would reduce the input of new susceptible domestic dogs into the population while Trap-Neuter-Vaccinate-Release (TNVR) method can be implemented to control new births of free-roaming strays. In summary, increasing the coverage of dog vaccination and reducing the number newborn dogs would be the more effective strategies to manage the current rabies outbreak in Sarawak.

No abstract

The state government of Sarawak with the help of the Sarawak Disaster Management Committee (SDMC) has continuously made the updated information on the state COVID-19 situation and its ensuing control measures available to general public in the form of daily press statements. However, these statements are merely providing textual information on daily basis though the data are in fact rich in temporal and spatial properties. Since the onset of COVID-19 pandemic, spatiotemporal analysis becomes the key element to better understand the spread of COVID-19 in various spatial levels worldwide. Hence, there is an urgent need to convert this textual information into more valuable insights by applying geo-visualization techniques and geospatial statistics. The paper demonstrates the prospect of retrieving geospatial data from publicly available document to locate, map and analyze the spread of COVID-19 up to division level of Sarawak. Specifically, map visualization and geospatial statistical analysis are performed for the list of exposed locations, which are indeed locations visited by COVID-19 patients prior to being tested positive in Kuching division, using open-source geospatial software QGIS. It is found that these exposed locations concentrate on the build-up areas in the division and are in south-west to north-east direction of the center of Kuching in September and October 2021. Despite the number of exposed locations published is relatively small compared to the number of confirmed cases reported, both are nearly strongly correlated. The insights gained from such geospatial analysis may assist the local public health authorities to impose applicable disease control interventions at division level.

In Malaysia, COVID-19 were first detected as imported cases on 25 January and as local infection on 4 February 2020. A surge of positive cases ensued by March 2020 which led to a series of countrywide containment and mitigation measures known as Movement Control Order (MCO). We study the direct effects of MCO on the course of epidemic by analyzing the cumulative and daily infection cases of COVID-19 up to 31 December 2020 in Malaysia and its states using piecewise linear regression and segment neighborhoods algorithm of change-point analysis, respectively. Through piecewise regression on nationwide cases, MCO were likely to almost flatten the epidemic curve in just one month after it was first initiated. While for stateswise cases, the average length of series of concave downward is six months before it turn to concave upward, indicating the period of which deceleration of new cases can be expected. However, the starting of this wave of COVID-19 can be relatively vary for three months in different states and federal territories. Together with change-point analysis on daily cases, the statewise epidemic phases could be subdivided into two to four regimes, whereby the majority of phase transitions fall in April and last quarter of 2020. Overall, the statistical modelling shows that the immediate effect of MCO appears to be effective.

Background In Sarawak, 252 300 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases have been recorded with 1 619 fatalities in 2021, compared to only 1 117 cases in 2020. Since Sarawak is geographically separated from Peninsular Malaysia and half of its population resides in rural districts where medical resources are limited, the analysis of spatiotemporal heterogeneity of disease incidence rates and their relationship with socio-demographic factors are crucial in understanding the spread of the disease in Sarawak. Methods The spatial dependence of district-wise incidence rates is investigated using spatial autocorrelation analysis with two orders of contiguity weights for various pandemic waves. Nine determinants are chosen from 14 covariates of socio-demographic factors via elastic net regression and recursive partitioning. The relationships between incidence rates and socio-demographic factors are examined using ordinary least squares, spatial lag and spatial error models, and geographically weighted regression. Results In the first 8 months of 2021, COVID-19 severely affected Sarawak’s central region, which was followed by the southern region in the next 2 months. In the third wave, based on second-order spatial weights, the incidence rate in a district is most strongly influenced by its neighboring districts’ rate, although the variance of incidence rates is best explained by local regression coefficient estimates of socio-demographic factors in the first wave. It is discovered that the percentage of households with garbage collection facilities, population density and the proportion of male in the population are positively associated with the increase in COVID-19 incidence rates. Conclusion This research provides useful insights for the State Government and public health authorities to critically incorporate socio-demographic characteristics of local communities into evidence-based decision-making for altering disease monitoring and response plans. Policymakers can make well-informed judgments and implement targeted interventions by having an in-depth understanding of the spatial patterns and relationships between COVID-19 incidence rates and socio-demographic characteristics. This will effectively help in mitigating the spread of the disease.

One of the threats of the world health is the infectious diseases. This leads to the raise of concern of the policymakers and disease researchers. Vaccination program is one of the methods to prevent the vaccine-preventable diseases and hence help to eradicate the diseases. The impact of the preventive actions is related to the human behavioral changes. Fear of the diseases will increase one’s incentive in taking the preventive actions to avoid the diseases. As human behavioral changes affecting the impact of the preventive actions, the individual-based model is constructed to incorporate the behavioral changes in disease modeling. The agents in the individual-based model are allowed to move randomly and interact with each other in the environment. The interactions will cause the disease viruses as well as the fearfulness to be spread in the population. In addition, the individual-based model can have different environment setups to distinguish the urban and rural areas. The results shown in this paper are divided into two subsections, which are the justification of using uniform distribution as random number generator, and the variation of disease spread dynamics in urban and rural areas. Based on the results, the uniform distribution is found to be sufficient in generating the random numbers in this model as there is no extreme outlier reported in the experiment. We have hypothesized the individuals in urban area to have higher level of fearfulness compared to those in rural area. However, the preliminary results of the survey conducted show a disagreement with the hypothesis. Nevertheless, the data collected still show two distinct classes of behavior. Thus, the distinction does not fall into the samples taken from rural or urban areas but perhaps more on the demographic factors. Therefore, the survey has to be study again and demographic factors have to be included in the survey as we could not distinguish the level of fearfulness by areas.

No abstract