An effective collocation method based on Genocchi operational matrix for solving generalized fractional pantograph equations with initial and boundary conditions is presented. Using the properties of Genocchi polynomials, we derive a new Genocchi delay operational matrix which we used together with the Genocchi operational matrix of fractional derivative to approach the problems. The error upper bound for the Genocchi operational matrix of fractional derivative is also shown. Collocation method based on these operational matrices is applied to reduce the generalized fractional pantograph equations to a system of algebraic equations. The comparison of the numerical results with some existing methods shows that the present method is an excellent mathematical tool for finding the numerical solutions of generalized fractional pantograph equations.

There is a growing concern over the ongoing rabies epidemic in Sarawak that has remain unresolved ever since the outbreak began in July 2017. As of today, there has been 18 positive human rabies cases reported, which includes 17 fatalities, and one survivor who is now on life support after a severe neurological complications. Subsequently, the death rate now stands at approximately 94%. This paper is a preliminary report on the simulation of rabies transmission dynamics in Sarawak. At present, research is still lacking on the disease dynamics of rabies in Malaysia particularly in the state of Sarawak. We propose here a deterministic, compartmental model with SEIRS framework to fit actual data on the number of human infected rabies cases in Sarawak from June 2017 to January 2019. The simulation predicts that rabies in Sarawak will persist even with the current outbreak management and control efforts. Further, sensitivity analysis showed that dog vaccination rate is the most influential parameter and the basic reproduction number is estimated to be higher than 1. Henceforth, there is a need to increase the access to dog vaccines especially in remote rural areas with lack of health facilities. Our findings also suggest that controlling dog births could prevent the spread of rabies from perpetuating in the state. Neutering or using other fertility control methods would reduce the input of new susceptible domestic dogs into the population while Trap-Neuter-Vaccinate-Release (TNVR) method can be implemented to control new births of free-roaming strays. In summary, increasing the coverage of dog vaccination and reducing the number newborn dogs would be the more effective strategies to manage the current rabies outbreak in Sarawak.

No abstract

The state government of Sarawak with the help of the Sarawak Disaster Management Committee (SDMC) has continuously made the updated information on the state COVID-19 situation and its ensuing control measures available to general public in the form of daily press statements. However, these statements are merely providing textual information on daily basis though the data are in fact rich in temporal and spatial properties. Since the onset of COVID-19 pandemic, spatiotemporal analysis becomes the key element to better understand the spread of COVID-19 in various spatial levels worldwide. Hence, there is an urgent need to convert this textual information into more valuable insights by applying geo-visualization techniques and geospatial statistics. The paper demonstrates the prospect of retrieving geospatial data from publicly available document to locate, map and analyze the spread of COVID-19 up to division level of Sarawak. Specifically, map visualization and geospatial statistical analysis are performed for the list of exposed locations, which are indeed locations visited by COVID-19 patients prior to being tested positive in Kuching division, using open-source geospatial software QGIS. It is found that these exposed locations concentrate on the build-up areas in the division and are in south-west to north-east direction of the center of Kuching in September and October 2021. Despite the number of exposed locations published is relatively small compared to the number of confirmed cases reported, both are nearly strongly correlated. The insights gained from such geospatial analysis may assist the local public health authorities to impose applicable disease control interventions at division level.

In Malaysia, COVID-19 were first detected as imported cases on 25 January and as local infection on 4 February 2020. A surge of positive cases ensued by March 2020 which led to a series of countrywide containment and mitigation measures known as Movement Control Order (MCO). We study the direct effects of MCO on the course of epidemic by analyzing the cumulative and daily infection cases of COVID-19 up to 31 December 2020 in Malaysia and its states using piecewise linear regression and segment neighborhoods algorithm of change-point analysis, respectively. Through piecewise regression on nationwide cases, MCO were likely to almost flatten the epidemic curve in just one month after it was first initiated. While for stateswise cases, the average length of series of concave downward is six months before it turn to concave upward, indicating the period of which deceleration of new cases can be expected. However, the starting of this wave of COVID-19 can be relatively vary for three months in different states and federal territories. Together with change-point analysis on daily cases, the statewise epidemic phases could be subdivided into two to four regimes, whereby the majority of phase transitions fall in April and last quarter of 2020. Overall, the statistical modelling shows that the immediate effect of MCO appears to be effective.