Reduced lung function predicts mortality and is key to the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In a genome-wide association study in 400,102 individuals of European ancestry, we define 279 lung function signals, 139 of which are new. In combination, these variants strongly predict COPD in independent patient populations. Furthermore, the combined effect of these variants showed generalizability across smokers and never-smokers, and across ancestral groups. We highlight biological pathways, known and potential drug targets for COPD and, in phenome-wide association studies, autoimmune-related and other pleiotropic effects of lung function associated variants. This new genetic evidence has potential to improve future preventive and therapeutic strategies for COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the leading cause of respiratory mortality worldwide. Genetic risk loci provide novel insights into disease pathogenesis. We performed a genome-wide association study in 35,735 cases and 222,076 controls from the UK Biobank and additional studies from the International COPD Genetics Consortium. We identified 82 loci with P -value < 5 × 10 −8 ; 47 were previously described in association with either COPD or population-based lung function. Of the remaining 35 novel loci, 13 were associated with lung function in 79,055 individuals from the SpiroMeta consortium. Using gene expression and regulation data, we identified enrichment for loci in lung tissue, smooth muscle and several lung cell types. We found 14 COPD loci shared with either asthma or pulmonary fibrosis. COPD genetic risk loci clustered into groups of quantitative imaging features and comorbidity associations. Our analyses provide further support to the genetic susceptibility and heterogeneity of COPD.

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Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a complex lung disease characterised by scarring of the lung that is believed to result from an atypical response to injury of the epithelium. The mechanisms by which this arises are poorly understood and it is likely that multiple pathways are involved. The strongest genetic association with IPF is a variant in the promoter of MUC5B where each copy of the risk allele confers a five-fold risk of disease. However, genome-wide association studies have reported additional signals of association implicating multiple pathways including host defence, telomere maintenance, signalling and cell-cell adhesion. Objectives:To improve our understanding of mechanisms that increase IPF susceptibility by identifying previously unreported genetic associations. Methods and measurements:We performed the largest genome-wide association study undertaken for IPF susceptibility with a discovery stage comprising up to 2,668 IPF cases and 8,591 controls with replication in an additional 1,467 IPF cases and 11,874 controls. Polygenic risk scores were used to assess the collective effect of variants not reported as associated with IPF. Main results:We identified and replicated three new genome-wide significant (P<5×10 −8 ) signals of association with IPF susceptibility (near KIF15, MAD1L1 and DEPTOR) and confirm associations at 11 previously reported loci. Polygenic risk score analyses showed that the combined effect of many thousands of as-yet unreported IPF risk variants contribute to IPF susceptibility. Conclusions:Novel association signals support the importance of mTOR signalling in lung fibrosis and suggest a possible role of mitotic spindle-assembly genes in IPF susceptibility.

Summary Background Genetic factors influence chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk, but the individual variants that have been identified have small effects. We hypothesised that a polygenic risk score using additional variants would predict COPD and associated phenotypes. Methods We constructed a polygenic risk score using a genome-wide association study of lung function (FEV 1 and FEV 1 /forced vital capacity [FVC]) from the UK Biobank and SpiroMeta. We tested this polygenic risk score in nine cohorts of multiple ethnicities for an association with moderate-to-severe COPD (defined as FEV 1 /FVC <0·7 and FEV 1 <80% of predicted). Associations were tested using logistic regression models, adjusting for age, sex, height, smoking pack-years, and principal components of genetic ancestry. We assessed predictive performance of models by area under the curve. In a subset of studies, we also studied quantitative and qualitative CT imaging phenotypes that reflect parenchymal and airway pathology, and patterns of reduced lung growth. Findings The polygenic risk score was associated with COPD in European (odds ratio [OR] per SD 1·81 [95% CI 1·74–1·88] and non-European (1·42 [1·34–1·51]) populations. Compared with the first decile, the tenth decile of the polygenic risk score was associated with COPD, with an OR of 7·99 (6·56–9·72) in European ancestry and 4·83 (3·45–6·77) in non-European ancestry cohorts. The polygenic risk score was superior to previously described genetic risk scores and, when combined with clinical risk factors (ie, age, sex, and smoking pack-years), showed improved prediction for COPD compared with a model comprising clinical risk factors alone (AUC 0·80 [0·79–0·81] vs 0·76 [0·75–0·76]). The polygenic risk score was associated with CT imaging phenotypes, including wall area percent, quantitative and qualitative measures of emphysema, local histogram emphysema patterns, and destructive emphysema subtypes. The polygenic risk score was associated with a reduced lung growth pattern. Interpretation A risk score comprised of genetic variants can identify a small subset of individuals at markedly increased risk for moderate-to-severe COPD, emphysema subtypes associated with cigarette smoking, and patterns of reduced lung growth. Funding US National Institutes of Health, Wellcome Trust.

28Reduced lung function predicts mortality and is key to the diagnosis of COPD. In a genome-wide 29 association study in 400,102 individuals of European ancestry, we define 279 lung function signals, 30one-half of which are new. In combination these variants strongly predict COPD in deeply-31 phenotyped patient populations. Furthermore, the combined effect of these variants showed 32 generalisability across smokers and never-smokers, and across ancestral groups. We highlight 33 biological pathways, known and potential drug targets for COPD and, in phenome-wide association 34 studies, autoimmune-related and other pleiotropic effects of lung function associated variants. This 35 new genetic evidence has potential to improve future preventive and therapeutic strategies for 36 COPD.

Causal genes of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remain elusive. The current study aims at integrating genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and lung expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data to map COPD candidate causal genes and gain biological insights into the recently discovered COPD susceptibility loci. Two complementary genomic datasets on COPD were studied. First, the lung eQTL dataset which included whole-genome gene expression and genotyping data from 1038 individuals. Second, the largest COPD GWAS to date from the International COPD Genetics Consortium (ICGC) with 13 710 cases and 38 062 controls. Methods that integrated GWAS with eQTL signals including transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS), colocalization and Mendelian randomization-based (SMR) approaches were used to map causality genes, i.e. genes with the strongest evidence of being the functional effector at specific loci. These methods were applied at the genome-wide level and at COPD risk loci derived from the GWAS literature. Replication was performed using lung data from GTEx. We collated 129 non-overlapping risk loci for COPD from the GWAS literature. At the genome-wide scale, 12 new COPD candidate genes/loci were revealed and six replicated in GTEx including CAMK2A, DMPK, MYO15A, TNFRSF10A, BTN3A2 and TRBV30. In addition, we mapped candidate causal genes for 60 out of the 129 GWAS-nominated loci and 23 of them were replicated in GTEx. Mapping candidate causal genes in lung tissue represents an important contribution to the genetics of COPD, enriches our biological interpretation of GWAS findings, and brings us closer to clinical translation of genetic associations.

Scientific Knowledge on the Subject: COPD progresses over decades so little is known about longitudinal changes in individual patients, and whether there are different patterns of disease progression in different patient subgroups.What this Study Adds to the Field: Computational modelling of CT biomarkers suggests there are two patterns of disease progression in COPD. These disease progression patterns or 'subtypes' can be used to stratify individuals into two groups with distinct clinical characteristics, and to stage individuals along their disease time-course. Early stages of both subtypes are identifiable in a proportion of 'healthy smokers' providing a biomarker of early COPD.