Weather Normalized Models (WNMs) are modeling methods used for assessing air contaminants under a business-as-usual (BAU) assumption. Therefore, WNMs are used to assess the impact of many events on urban pollution. Recently, different approaches have been implemented to develop WNMs and quantify the lockdown effects of COVID-19 on air quality, including Machine Learning (ML). However, more advanced methods, such as Deep Learning (DL), have never been applied for developing WNMs. In this study, we proposed WNMs based on DL algorithms, aiming to test five DL architectures and compare their performances to a recent ML approach, namely Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM). The concentrations of five air pollutants (CO, NO2, PM2.5, SO2, and O3) are studied in the city of Quito, Ecuador. The results show that Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Network (BiRNN) outperform the other algorithms and, consequently, are recommended as appropriate WNMs to quantify the effects of the lockdowns on air pollution. Furthermore, examining the variable importance in the LSTM and BiRNN models, we identify that the most relevant temporal and meteorological features for predicting air quality are Hours (time of day), Index (1 is the first collected data and increases by one after each instance), Julian Day (day of the year), Relative Humidity, Wind Speed, and Solar Radiation. During the full lockdown, the concentration of most pollutants has decreased drastically: −48.75%, for CO, −45.76%, for SO2, −42.17%, for PM2.5, and −63.98%, for NO2. The reduction of this latter gas has induced an increase of O3 by +26.54%.
Particulate matter (PM) accounts for millions of premature deaths in the human population every year. Due to social and economic inequality, growing human dissatisfaction manifests in waves of strikes and protests all over the world, causing paralysis of institutions, services and circulation of transport. In this study, we aim to investigate air quality in Ecuador during the national protest of 2019, by studying the evolution of PM2.5 (PM ≤ 2.5 µm) concentrations in Ecuador and its capital city Quito using ground based and satellite data. Apart from analyzing the PM2.5 evolution over time to trace the pollution changes, we employ machine learning techniques to estimate these changes relative to the business-as-usual pollution scenario. In addition, we present a chemical analysis of plant samples from an urban park housing the strike. Positive impact on regional air quality was detected for Ecuador, and an overall − 10.75 ± 17.74% reduction of particulate pollution in the capital during the protest. However, barricade burning PM peaks may contribute to a release of harmful heavy metals (tire manufacture components such as Co, Cr, Zn, Al, Fe, Pb, Mg, Ba and Cu), which might be of short- and long-term health concerns.
The concentration peaks of atmospheric pollutants are the most challenging and important phenomena in air quality forecasting. The fact that these elevated levels of pollution do not seem to follow any specific pattern explains why current models still struggle to provide an accurate prediction of these harmful events for human health. The present study tackles this issue by testing several supervised learning methods to discriminate between peak and no peak of concentrations of five contaminants: NO2, CO, SO2, PM2.5, and O3. The classification performance of ensemble decision tree (gradient boosting machine (GBM)) models and ensemble deep learning (EDL) models are compared. The results reveal that the EDL outperforms the GBM model. An analysis of the variable importance (SHapley additive exPlanations (SHAP)) shows that both temporal and meteorological features have an impact on the proposed models. In particular, time of day and wind speed are the most important features to explain the performance of the ensemble DL models.
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