The frequency of extreme weather events, including heat waves, is increasing with climate change. The thermoregulatory demands resulting from hotter weather can have catastrophic impacts on animals, leading to mass mortalities. Although less dramatic, animals also experience physiological costs below, but approaching, critical temperature thresholds. These costs may be particularly constraining during reproduction, when parents must balance thermoregulation against breeding activities. Such challenges should be acute among seabirds, which often nest in locations exposed to high solar radiation and predation risk. The globally endangered bank cormorant Phalacrocorax neglectus breeds in southern Africa in the winter, giving little scope for poleward or phenological shifts in the face of increasing temperatures. Physiological studies of endangered species sensitive to human disturbance, like the bank cormorant, are challenging, because individuals cannot be captured for experimental research. Using a novel, non-invasive, videographic approach, we investigated the thermoregulatory responses of this seabird across a range of environmental temperatures at three nesting colonies. The time birds spent gular fluttering, a behaviour enhancing evaporative heat loss, increased with temperature. Crouching or standing birds spent considerably less time gular fluttering than birds sitting on nests (ca 30% less at 22°C), showing that postural adjustments mediate exposure to heat stress and enhance water conservation. Crouching or standing, however, increases the vulnerability of eggs and chicks to suboptimal temperatures and/or expose nest contents to predation, suggesting that parents may trade-off thermoregulatory demands against offspring survival. We modelled thermoregulatory responses under future climate scenarios and found that nest-bound bank cormorants will gular flutter almost continuously for several hours a day by 2100. The associated increase in water loss may lead to dehydration, forcing birds to prioritize survival over breeding, a trade-off that would ultimately deteriorate the conservation status of this species.

Human activities are important drivers of marine ecosystem functioning. However, separating the synergistic effects of fishing and environmental variability on the prey base of nontarget predators is difficult, often because prey availability estimates on appropriate scales are lacking. Understanding how prey abundance at different spatial scales links to population change can help integrate the needs of nontarget predators into fisheries management by defining ecologically relevant areas for spatial protection. We investigated the local population response (number of breeders) of the Bank Cormorant (Phalacrocorax neglectus), a range-restricted endangered seabird, to the availability of its prey, the heavily fished west coast rock lobster (Jasus lalandii). Using Bayesian state-space modeled cormorant counts at 3 colonies, 22 years of fisheries-independent data on local lobster abundance, and generalized additive modeling, we determined the spatial scale pertinent to these relationships in areas with different lobster availability. Cormorant numbers responded positively to lobster availability in the regions with intermediate and high abundance but not where regime shifts and fishing pressure had depleted lobster stocks. The relationships were strongest when lobsters 20-30 km offshore of the colony were considered, a distance greater than the Bank Cormorant's foraging range when breeding, and may have been influenced by prey availability for nonbreeding birds, prey switching, or prey ecology. Our results highlight the importance of considering the scale of ecological relationships in marine spatial planning and suggest that designing spatial protection around focal species can benefit marine predators across their full life cycle. We propose the precautionary implementation of small-scale marine protected areas, followed by robust assessment and adaptive-management, to confirm population-level benefits for the cormorants, their prey, and the wider ecosystem, without negative impacts on local fisheries.

Human activities are important drivers of marine ecosystem functioning. However, 25 teasing apart the synergistic effects of fishing and environmental variability on the prey base of 26 non-target predators is difficult, often because estimates of prey availability on appropriate scales 27 are lacking. Hence, understanding the links between direct measures of prey abundance and 28 population change can help integrate the needs of non-target predators into fisheries management. 29Here we investigated the local population response (number of breeders) of bank cormorants 30Phalacrocorax neglectus, an Endangered seabird, to the availability of its prey, the heavily-fished

Human activities are important drivers of marine ecosystem functioning. However, teasing apart the synergistic effects of fishing and environmental variability on the prey base of non-target predators is difficult, often because estimates of prey availability on appropriate scales are lacking. Hence, understanding the links between direct measures of prey abundance and population change can help integrate the needs of non-target predators into fisheries management. Here we investigated the local population response (number of breeders) of bank cormorants Phalacrocorax neglectus, an Endangered seabird, to the availability of its prey, the heavily-fished West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii. Using Bayesian state-space modelled counts of cormorants at three colonies, 22 years of fisheries-independent data on local lobster abundance and generalized additive modelling, we determined the spatial-scale pertinent to these relationships in areas of differing lobster abundance. Cormorant numbers responded positively to rock lobster availability in the regions of intermediate and high abundance, but not where regime shifts and fishing pressure have made rock lobster scarce. However, the spatial scale (30 km) at which the relationships were strongest was greater than the cormorants’ foraging range when breeding. Prey availability in the non-breeding season, prey switching and prey ecology can all influence neritic seabirds and should be considered in marine spatial planning. Crucially, though, our results highlight the potential for small-scale marine protected areas (MPAs) to benefit top predators over their full-life cycle by protecting their prey. Precautionary implementation of MPAs, with robust assessment and adaptive-management, could protect predators and their prey without negatively impacting dependent fisheries.