The article examines the process of the growing German political and military activity in North Africa during the second half of the 2010s. The first key reason of this process was the new awareness of the regional role in the ensuring of Germany’s and the EU security. During and after the “Arab Spring”, the interstate “corridor of instability” arose. It went from Mali further to Niger and Libya which has been facing permanent instability after the intervention of the group of Western countries (2011, without German participation). The full-fledged functioning of the “corridor of instability” could cause the worse version of the refugee crisis and growing terrorist activity than it was in the EU in 2015–2016. The second reason was the necessity to ensure Berlin`s strong political-military positions in North Africa for the realization of Germany`s ambitions as a future world power. The research examines the features and “narrow places” of interstate cooperation in the security sphere between Germany and Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria. Germany became a senior partner for Tunisia in 2015–2017, and positioned these relations as exemplary. Since 2015–2016, Germany and Egypt have been supporting the realization of each other’s leadership ambitions. The key elements of this tactic have been the cooperation in Syrian and Libyan armed conflicts regulation and launch of the EU–LAS negotiation format (2019). The article also shows the dynamics of partnership between Germany and Algeria, paying special attention to bilateral cooperation in the sphere of the Mali, Libyan and Western Sahara conflicts regulation. The transition of Germany’s bilateral relations with Egypt and Algeria to the level of advanced cooperation in the second half of 2010s caused a powerful growth of the FRG`s arms export to these countries. At the beginning of 2020, Germany launched the multilateral Berlin conference for resolution of the Libyan conflict. Germany’s late but rather successful involvement in the Libyan conflict management should ensure its efforts to become the external participant of the North African regional security system. The paper concludes about the perspectives of the FRG`s political-military line in the region considering the factor of COVID 19 pandemic.
Германо-польские отношения на современном этапе: Политико-военное измерение Аннотация. В статье рассматриваются ключевые составляющие германопольского взаимодействия в военно-политической области на современном этапе. Основной метод научного исследования-ивент-анализ политики ФРГ, затрагивающей интересы Республики Польша (РП). Исследуется политико-дипломатическая составляющая взаимодействия. В этой связи рассматриваются причины и последствия создания формата «Веймарского треугольника» (1991), использование его участвующими сторонами для согласования позиций на начальных стадиях украинских событий (2013-2014). Показывается, что Германия (и Франция) выступает против вхождения Польши в состав «Нормандского формата» с учeтом еe возможного негативного влияния на ход и без того «буксуюшего» урегулирования вооружeнного конфликта на востоке Украины. Отмечается, что для снятия возникшей в этой связи напряженности в германо-польских отношениях ФРГ интенсифицировала использование «Веймарского треугольника». Указывается на неготовность РП участвовать в реализации инициатив германо-французского тандема под эгидой ЕС в области безопасности.
Germany is an example of power, which is consistently trying to increase its role in global politics, including more active part in the solution of a wide range of military-political questions. At the same time Germany is facing the growing number of challenges for its own security, coming mostly from unstable Asian and African states. This makes Germany pay more attention on the Middle East in searching of new and strengthening traditional links with the regional partners. In this regard the article covers the dynamics, problems and perspectives of the bilateral interactions between Germany and Saudi Arabia in political-military sphere during the 2010s. Traditionally Saudi Arabia was one of the key partners of the ‘collective West’ in the Middle East and has had rather good relations with Germany. The key research method used in the article is the event-analysis. The research paper profoundly investigates the relations between Germany and Saudi Arabia during the first half of the 2010s. The article stresses the mutual interest in expanding and deepening cooperation in the context of the “Arab awakening”, including the solution of the Syrian problem. The key focus is paid to the growing discrepancies in positions of two parts regarding the Yemen conflict resolution in the context of confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The article also describes the dynamics of negotiations between Germany and Saudi Arabia on the highest and high levels in the middle 2010s. The paper points out the growing recession periods in German-Saudi relations in 2016-2017 (taken into account the execution of Shiite preachers in KSA; Qatar diplomatic crises and the assassination of J. Khashoggi). After the signature and implementation of the Iranian ‘nuclear deal’ Germany has been increasingly inclined towards the tactics of “balancing” between Iran and Saudi Arabia. And in this regard has emphasized the unacceptability of a direct military conflict between them. After Trump’s administration withdrawal from Iranian nuclear deal the article stresses the tougher German pressure on Saudi Arabia both in militarytechnical cooperation and political spheres in order to assure the withdrawal of Saudi Arabian military forces from Yemen. In the conclusion the author specifies the politicization of the bilateral military-technical cooperation and the sharp increase of the influence of Iranian factor over the German-Saudi relations. Three scenarios of future development of the confrontation between two states are proposed. Depending on each of them, the prospects for the development of German-Saudi relations are defined.
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