No abstract

In June 2009 and September 2014, the Styrian Basin in Austria was affected by extreme events of heavy thunderstorms, triggering thousands of landslides. Since the relationship between intense rainfall, land cover/land use (LULC), and landslide occurrences is still not fully understood, our objective was to develop a model design that allows to assess landslide susceptibility specifically for past triggering events. We used generalized additive models (GAM) to link land surface, geology, meteorological, and LULC variables to observed slope failures. Accounting for the temporal variation in landslide triggering, we implemented an innovative spatio-temporal approach for landslide absence sampling. We assessed model performance using k-fold cross-validation in space and time to estimate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Furthermore, we analyzed the variable importance and its relationship to landslide occurrence. Our results showed that the models had on average acceptable to outstanding landslide discrimination capabilities (0.81–0.94 mAUROC in space and 0.72–0.95 mAUROC in time). Furthermore, meteorological and LULC variables were of great importance in explaining the landslide events (e.g., five-day rainfall 13.6–17.8% mean decrease in deviance explained), confirming their usefulness in landslide event analysis. Based on the present findings, future studies may assess the potential of this approach for developing future storylines of slope instability based on climate and LULC scenarios.

Landslides are a major natural hazard, but uncertainties about their occurrence in a warmer climate are substantial. The relative role of rainfall, soil moisture, and land-use changes and the importance of climate change mitigation are not well understood. Here, we develop an event storyline approach to address these issues, considering an observed event in Austria with some 3000 landslides as a showcase. We simulate the event using a convection permitting regional climate model and a statistical landslide model at present and a range of plausible future climate and land use conditions. Depending on the changes of rainfall and soil moisture, the area affected during a 2009-type event could grow by 45% at 4 K global warming, although a slight reduction is also possible. Such growth could be reduced to less than 10% by limiting global warming according to the Paris agreement. Anticipated land-use changes towards a climate-resilient forest would fully compensate for such a limited increase in hazard.

No abstract

With the increased availability of high-resolution digital terrain models (HRDTM) generated using airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), new opportunities for improved mapping of geohazards such as landslides arise. While the visual interpretation of LiDAR, HRDTM hillshades is a widely used approach, the automatic detection of landslides is promising to significantly speed up the compilation of inventories. Previous studies on automatic landslide detection often used a combination of optical imagery and geomorphometric data, and were implemented in commercial software. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential of open source software for automated landslide detection solely based on HRDTM-derived data in a study area in Burgenland, Austria. We implemented a geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) consisting of (1) the calculation of land-surface variables, textural features and shape metrics, (2) the automated optimization of segmentation scale parameters, (3) region-growing segmentation of the landscape, (4) the supervised classification of landslide parts (scarp and body) using support vector machines (SVM), and (5) an assessment of the overall classification performance using a landslide inventory. We used the free and open source data-analysis environment R and its coupled geographic information system (GIS) software for the analysis; our code is included in the Supplementary Materials. The developed approach achieved a good performance (κ = 0.42) in the identification of landslides.