This paper studies a distributed continuous-time bi-virus model in which two competing viruses spread over a network consisting of multiple groups of individuals. Limiting behaviors of the network are characterized by analyzing the equilibria of the system and their stability. Specifically, when the two viruses spread over possibly different directed infection graphs, the system may have (1) a unique equilibrium, the healthy state, which is globally stable, implying that both viruses will eventually be eradicated, (2) two equilibria including the healthy state and a dominant virus state, which is almost globally stable, implying that one virus will pervade the entire network causing a single-virus epidemic while the other virus will be eradicated, or (3) at least three equilibria including the healthy state and two dominant virus states, depending on certain conditions on the healing and infection rates. When the two viruses spread over the same directed infection graph, the system may have zero or infinitely many coexisting epidemic equilibria, which represents the pervasion of the two viruses. Sensitivity properties of some nontrivial equilibria are investigated in the context of a decentralized control technique, and an impossibility result is given for a certain type of distributed feedback controller.
The spread of viruses in biological networks, computer networks, and human contact networks can have devastating effects; developing and analyzing mathematical models of these systems can be insightful and lead to societal benefits. Prior research has focused mainly on network models with static graph structures, however the systems being modeled typically have dynamic graph structures. Therefore to better understand and analyze virus spread, further study is required. In this paper, we consider virus spread models over networks with dynamic graph structures, and investigate the behavior of diseases in these systems. A stability analysis of epidemic processes over timevarying networks is performed, examining conditions for the disease free equilibrium, in both the deterministic and stochastic cases. We present simulation results, propose a number of corollaries based on these simulations, and discuss quarantine control via simulation.
Models of spreading processes over nontrivial networks are commonly motivated by modeling and analysis of biological networks, computer networks, and human contact networks. However, learning the spread parameters of such models has not yet been explored in detail, and the models have not been validated by real data. In this paper, we present several different spread models from the literature and explore their relationships to each other; for one of these processes, we present a sufficient condition for asymptotic stability of the healthy equilibrium, show that the condition is necessary and sufficient for uniqueness of the healthy equilibrium, and present necessary and sufficient conditions for estimating the spread parameters. Finally, we employ two real data sets, one from John Snow's seminal work on cholera epidemics in London in the 1850s and the other one from the United States Department of Agriculture, to validate an approximation of a well-studied network-dependent susceptible-infected-susceptible model.
Motivated by the spread of opinions on different social networks, we study a distributed continuous-time bi-virus model for a system of groups of individuals. An in-depth stability analysis is performed for more general models than have been previously considered, for the healthy and epidemic states. In addition, we investigate sensitivity properties of some nontrivial equilibria and obtain an impossibility result for distributed feedback control.
This paper proposes a distributed continuous-time epidemic model, called networked SIWS (Susceptible-Infected-Water-Susceptible) model, for an SIS type waterborne disease spreading over a network of multiple groups of individuals sharing a water source. A sufficient condition is obtained for the healthy state, at which all individuals are not infected and the water is not contaminated, to be globally asymptotically stable. The effects of the shared water source on the disease spreading are analyzed through the comparison of the basic reproduction number with the networked SIS model without water and demonstrated via simulations.
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